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Forex - USD/CHF weekly outlook: November 4 - 8

Published 11/03/2013, 06:32 AM
USD/CHF
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Investing.com - The dollar advanced to two-week highs against the Swiss franc on Friday as expectations that the Federal Reserve may start tapering stimulus sooner than thought were boosted by unexpectedly strong U.S. manufacturing data.

USD/CHF ended Friday’s session at 0.9122, 1.85% higher for the week after falling to 20-month lows of 0.8891 the previous Friday.

The pair is likely to find support at 0.8988, Thursday’s low and resistance at 0.9175, the high of October 16.

The dollar gained ground after the Institute of Supply Management said its manufacturing purchasing managers’ index rose to 56.4 in October, the highest since April 2011, from 56.2 in September. Economists had expected the index to tick down to 55.0.

The Fed left its USD85 billion-a-month asset purchase program in place following its monthly meeting on Wednesday and was less pessimistic than expected in its assessment of the economy.

"The housing sector has slowed somewhat in recent months," the Fed statement said. However, Fed officials stuck to the view that the economy is expanding "at a moderate pace" and said downside risks were diminishing.

The bank gave no clear indication whether it would start scaling back stimulus at the December meeting or continue it into the start of 2014.

On Friday the U.S. is to release the nonfarm payrolls report for October, which will help assess expectations for a possible reduction in Fed stimulus.

Data released on Wednesday showed that the U.S. private sector added fewer jobs than expected in October. Payroll processing firm ADP said non-farm private employment rose by a seasonally adjusted 130,000 in October, below expectations for an increase of 150,000.

The U.S. is also to release preliminary data on third quarter economic growth.

Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets. The guide skips Wednesday as there are no relevant events on this day.

Monday, November 4

The U.S. is to release data on factory orders, a leading indicator of production.

Tuesday, November 5

Switzerland is to produce data on consumer price inflation, which accounts for the majority of overall inflation.

In the U.S., the ISM is to release a report on service sector activity.

Thursday, November 7

The Swiss National Bank is to publish data on its foreign currency reserves. This data is closely scrutinized for indications of the size of the bank’s operations in currency markets.

The U.S. is to publish a preliminary estimate of third quarter gross domestic product, the broadest indicator of economic activity and the leading indicator of economic growth. Meanwhile, the Labor Department is to release its weekly report on initial jobless claims.

Friday, November 8

Switzerland is to publish data on retail sales, the government measure of consumer spending, which accounts for the majority of overall economic activity.

The University of Michigan is to release the preliminary reading of its consumer sentiment index. The U.S. is to round up the week with the closely watched government data on nonfarm payrolls and the unemployment rate.




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