Forex - USD/CHF weekly outlook: November 22-26

Published 11/21/2010, 07:49 AM
USD/CHF
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Investing.com – Last week saw the U.S. dollar advance against the Swiss franc for the second successive week, rising to hit an 8-week high, before paring gains following remarks by Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke, defending quantitative easing.

USD/CHF hit 0.9997 on Thursday, the pair’s highest since September 21; the pair subsequently consolidated at 0.9921 by close of trade on Friday, gaining 1.37% over the week.

The pair is likely to find support at 0.9828, the low of November 16 and resistance at 1.0073, the high of September 21.

Speaking at the European Central Bank conference in Frankfurt on Friday, Bernanke defended the Fed’s decision to purchase Treasury bonds in an effort to boost employment and combat deflation.

The best way to underpin the dollar and support the global recovery “is through policies that lead to a resumption of robust growth in a context of price stability in the United States,” Bernanke said.

Thursday’s dollar gains came after data showed that U.S. initial jobless claims rose less-than-expected in the week ending November 13, while a separate report showed that manufacturing activity in Philadelphia jumped significantly more-than-expected in November.

On Wednesday, official U.S. data showed that core consumer price inflation, which excludes food and energy costs was unexpectedly flat in October while CPI rose less-than-expected. The annual underlying inflation rate hit 0.6%, the lowest level since records began in 1957.

Also last week, official data showed that Swiss producer price inflation declined unexpectedly in October while the country’s trade surplus increased unexpectedly in October.

Next week, the U.S. is due to release a slew of data in a week cut short by the Thanksgiving holiday on Thursday, including revised figures on gross domestic product for the third quarter, durable goods orders, and personal income. The country is also to release its weekly report on jobless claims, while the Fed is to release the minutes of its most recent monetary policy meeting.

Meanwhile, Switzerland is to publish official data on its employment level as well as a barometer of leading economic indicators. The Chairman of the Swiss National Bank is to speak at a public engagement.

Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets. The guide skips Monday as there are no relevant events on this day.

Tuesday, November 23


The U.S. is to begin the week with revised figures on third quarter GDP, the leading indicator of economic growth. The country is also to publish industry data on existing home sales while the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond is to publish its manufacturing index. Later in the day, the Fed is to publish the minutes of its November monetary policy meeting, providing an in-depth insight into economic and financial conditions in the U.S.

Meanwhile SNB Chairman Philipp Hildebrand is to deliver a speech in Brussels; his comments will be closely watched for any clues to the future direction of monetary policy.

Wednesday, November 24


The U.S. is to release a slew of data, with official data on initial jobless claims, a leading indicator of economic health as well as government data on personal spending, durable goods orders and new home sales. The country is also to publish revised data on consumer sentiment and inflation expectations as well as reports on crude oil and natural gas inventories.

Thursday, November 25

Markets in the U.S. will remain closed in observance of Thanksgiving Day.

Switzerland is to publish official data on the country’s employment level, an important indicator of economic health.

Friday, November 26

Switzerland will round up the week with data from the KOF Economic Research Agency which is to publish its economic barometer for Switzerland, designed to predict the direction of the economy over the following six months.



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