Forex - USD/CHF weekly outlook: November 15-19

Published 11/14/2010, 07:21 AM
USD/CHF
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Investing.com – Last week saw the U.S. dollar close trading against the Swiss franc at 7-day high on Friday as the risk rally which started when investors began preparing for more asset-buying by the Federal Reserve came off the boil.

USD/CHF hit 0.9812 on Friday, the pair’s highest since November 3; the pair subsequently consolidated at 0.9807 by close of trade, leaping 1.94% over the week.

The pair is likely to find support at 0.9670, last Thursday’s low and resistance at 0.9931, the high of November 2.

The dollar’s gains came amid fresh concerns over peripheral euro zone sovereign debt and after a two day summit of the leaders of the Group of 20 leading and developing countries failed to reach a solid agreement on exchange rates and trade surpluses.

G-20 leaders vowed action to seek more balanced growth and set "indicative guidelines" for measuring imbalances between economies, but left the details to be discussed in the first half of 2011.

Also last week, official data showed that consumer confidence in Switzerland tumbled unexpectedly in October, with consumers expecting less dynamic business activity and a higher unemployment rate in the coming months.

In the week ahead, the U.S. is to release a flurry of data with reports on retail sales, inflation, manufacturing, foreign investment and building permits. The country is also to release key weekly data on initial jobless claims and the chairman of the Federal Reserve is to speak at a public engagement.

Meanwhile, Switzerland is to publish data on producer price inflation, trade balance and economic expectations.

Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets.

Monday, November 15

Switzerland will open the week with a monthly report on producer price inflation, a leading indicator of consumer inflation.

Also Monday, the U.S. is to publish key monthly data on retail sales, a leading indicator of consumer spending which accounts for about 70% of all economic activity. In addition, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York is to publish its monthly manufacturing index, a leading indicator of economic health. The country is also to publish data on business inventories.

Tuesday, November 16

The U.S. is to publish key data on producer prices, a leading indicator of consumer inflation, as well as government data on the difference in value between foreign long-term securities purchased by U.S. citizens and U.S. long-term securities purchased by foreigners. The country is also to release official data on industrial production, a leading indicator of economic health as well as data on the capacity utilization rate.

Wednesday, November 17

The U.S. is to publish official data on consumer price inflation, which accounts for the majority of overall inflation. The country is also to release official data on building permits and housing starts, both leading indicators of health in the housing sector as well as a report on crude oil inventories.

Thursday, November 18


Switzerland is to publish official data on its trade balance, or the difference in value between imported and exported goods over the month. Later in the day, the ZEW Center for Economic Research is to release data on Swiss economic expectations.

Also Thursday, the U.S. is to release key weekly data on initial jobless claims, while the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia is due to release a report on the city’s manufacturing sector. The country is also due to publish an index of leading economic indicators, designed to predict the future direction of the economy, as well as a report on natural gas inventories.

Friday, November 19

The chairman of the Federal Reserve Ben Bernanke is to speak at a conference in Frankfurt, his comments will be closely watched for any clues to the future direction of monetary policy.

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