Forex - USD/CHF weekly outlook: November 12 - 16

Published 11/11/2012, 06:46 AM
USD/CHF
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Investing.com - The U.S. dollar rose to a two-month high against the Swiss franc on Friday amid concerns that the economic slowdown in the euro zone is deepening, while worries over U.S. fiscal policy also bolstered demand for the safety of the greenback.

USD/CHF hit 0.9497 on Friday, the pair’s highest since September 7; the pair subsequently consolidated at 0.9485 by close of trade, 0.75% higher for the week.

The pair is likely to find support at 0.9427, Friday’s low and resistance at 0.9479, the high of September 7.

Concerns over the economic outlook for the euro zone mounted on Friday after Germany’s Economic Ministry warned that growth in the bloc’s largest economy was likely to weaken in the fourth quarter and going into the first quarter of 2013.

Market participants were also anticipating a Greek vote on the 2013 budget on Sunday, just days after the parliament narrowly approved a new austerity package needed to secure the next tranche of bailout funds.

Without the next aid installment, Greece risks default on November 16, when Athens must repay EUR5 billion of debts.

The greenback also found support amid concerns over the U.S. fiscal cliff, automatic tax hikes and spending cuts due to come into effect on January 1 unless lawmakers can reach an agreement, which could threaten U.S. and global growth.

In the U.S., data on Friday showed that consumer confidence improved more-than-expected in November.

The University of Michigan preliminary consumer sentiment index rose to 84.9, the fourth successive monthly increase and the highest level since July 2007, from 82.6 in October, compared to expectations for a reading of 83.0.

On Wednesday, the Swiss National Bank said that foreign currency reserves fell to CHF424.4 billion last month, from a record CHF429.5 billion in September, indicating that the central bank has reduced the scale of currency market operations to maintain the minimum exchange rate of 1.20 francs per euro.

Separately, official data showed that Swiss consumer price inflation ticked up 0.1% in October, compared to expectations for a 0.3% increase.

Year-over-year, Swiss consumer prices fell at an annualized rate of 0.2% last month, in line with expectations, after falling at a rate of 0.4% in September.

Data on Thursday showed that the unemployment rate in Switzerland ticked up to 3% in October from 2.9% the previous month, in line with expectations.

It was the first increase in the unemployment rate in six months, indicating that jobs are being eliminated as a result of slowing growth in Europe.

In the coming week, investors will be anticipating preliminary data on third quarter growth from the euro zone, amid concerns that the economic downturn in the region is deepening. Markets will also be closely following developments in Greece and Spain.

In addition, the Federal Reserve is to publish the minutes of its most recent policy setting meeting.

Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets.

Monday, November 12

Markets in the U.S. are to remain closed on Monday for a national holiday.

Tuesday, November 13

Switzerland is to produce government data on producer price inflation, a leading indicator of consumer inflation.

The U.S. is to release official data on the federal budget balance.

Wednesday, November 14

The ZEW Centre is to produce a report on economic expectations in Switzerland.

The U.S. is to produce government data on retail sales, the leading indicator of consumer spending, which accounts for the majority of overall economic activity.

The country is also to release official data on producer price inflation and business inventories, while the Fed is to publish the minutes of its most recent policy-setting meeting.

Thursday, November 15

The U.S. is to release a flurry of data, with reports on initial jobless claims, consumer price inflation, crude oil stockpiles, in addition to data on manufacturing activity in New York and Philadelphia.

Meanwhile, a speech by Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke will be closely watched for any indications on the future possible direction of monetary policy.

Friday, November 16

The U.S. is to round up the week with official data on the capacity utilization rate and industrial production, as well as a report on the balance of domestic and foreign securities purchases.


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