Forex - USD/CHF weekly outlook: March 12-16

Published 03/11/2012, 06:22 AM
USD/CHF
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Investing.com - The U.S. dollar ended the week higher against the Swiss franc on Friday, after positive U.S. employment data dampened expectations for additional easing measures by the Federal Reserve.

USD/CHF hit 0.9206 on Friday, the pair’s highest since February 17; the pair subsequently consolidated at 0.9185 by close of trade on Friday, adding 0.46% over the week.

The pair is likely to find support at 0.9045, the low of March 2 and resistance at 0.9250, the high of February 15.

The Department of Labor said on Friday that the U.S. economy added 227,000 jobs in February after increasing by a revised 284,000 the previous month. The unemployment rate held steady at a three year low of 8.3%.

The strong data boosted the dollar as it diminished expectations for a fresh round of asset purchases by the Federal Reserve to help stimulate economic growth.

A separate report showed that the country’s trade deficit widened unexpectedly in January, falling to USD52.6 billion from a deficit of USD50.4 billion the previous month.

Analysts had expected the trade deficit to narrow to USD48.9 billion in January.

Earlier Friday, Greece announced that more than 85% of its private creditors had signed up to a debt swap deal, aimed at restructuring 53.5% of the country’s debt. The deal cleared the way for Athens to secure a second bailout worth EUR130 billion and avert a default.

But market sentiment remained under pressure after the International Swaps and Derivatives Association said the debt swap constituted a “credit event” that would activate credit-default swaps, which designed to protect investors against losses on Greek sovereign debt.

Sentiment was also weighed by concerns over the economic outlook for the euro zone after the European Central Bank revised down its forecast for growth in 2012 to a range of between minus 0.5% and 0.3% following Thursday’s policy meeting.

The central bank left its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 1% for the third consecutive month, in a widely expected decision.

In Switzerland, official data showed on Thursday that consumer price inflation rose more-than-expected in February, ticking up 0.3% after a 0.4% decline the previous month.

Analysts had expected consumer price inflation to rise 0.2% in February.
In the week ahead, investors will be continuing to watch developments in Greece. Elsewhere, the Swiss National Bank is to hold a monetary policy meeting, while the U.S. is to publish official data on retail sales.

Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets.

Monday, March 12

The U.S. is to publish government data on the federal budget balance.

Tuesday, March 13

Switzerland is to produce government data on producer price inflation, an important gauge of consumer inflation.

The U.S. is to release government data on retail sales, the foremost indicator of consumer spending, which accounts for the majority of overall economic activity. The country is also to produce official data on business inventories, a signal of future business spending.

Also Tuesday, the Federal Reserve is to announce its benchmark interest rate; the announcement will be accompanied by the central bank’s rate statement.

Wednesday, March 14

Switzerland is to publish a report on the ZEW index of economic expectations, a key indicator of economic health.

Later in the day, the U.S. is to produce official data on the country’s current account, as well as data on import prices and crude oil stockpiles.

In addition, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke is also due to speak; his comments will be closely watched for clues to the future possible direction of monetary policy.

Thursday, March 15

In Switzerland, the State Secretariat for Economic Affairs is to publish its quarterly forecast for economic growth. Meanwhile, the SNB is to announce its benchmark interest rate; the announcement will be accompanied by the bank’s rate statement, which contains valuable insights into economic conditions from the bank’s perspective.

Later Thursday, the U.S. is to release government data on producer price inflation, a leading indicator of consumer inflation, as well as official data on unemployment claims. The country is also to produce reports on manufacturing activity in New York and Philadelphia, as well as a government report on net long-term securities transactions.

Friday, March 16

The U.S. is to round up the week with government data on consumer price inflation, followed by reports from the Federal Reserve on the capacity utilization rate and industrial production. In addition, the country is also to release preliminary reports by the University of Michigan on consumer sentiment and inflation expectations.


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