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Forex - USD/CHF weekly outlook: June 27- July 1

Published 06/26/2011, 07:31 AM
USD/CHF
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Investing.com – The Swiss franc climbed to a record high against the U.S. dollar on Friday, amid a combination of fears that Greece will struggle to pass austerity measures and that the U.S. economic recovery is losing momentum.

USD/CHF hit 0.8310 on Friday, the pair’s all-time low; the pair subsequently consolidated at 0.8333 by close of trade, tumbling 1.84% over the week.

The pair is likely to find support at 0.8200 and resistance at 0.8460, the high of June 21.

Greece received a EUR110 billion bailout from the European Union and International Monetary Fund in May 2010 but now needs a second bailout in order to avert a sovereign debt default.

Prime Minister George Papandreou's new government survived a confidence vote by a thin margin last Tuesday and for Greece to get the money, the country's parliament must approve a EUR28.4 billion austerity package next week.

On Friday, Socialist deputy Thomas Robopoulos said he wasn't prepared to vote for the government's planned austerity package.

Meanwhile, in the U.S., Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke confirmed Wednesday that the bank was winding up its monetary easing program at the end of this month and said further easing was unlikely.

But Bernanke said there was “uncertainty” about how much of the recent U.S. slowdown was permanent or transitory.

The Fed cut its cut its 2011 economic growth forecast for the U.S. to a range of 2.7% to 2.9%, down from a previous estimate of 3.1% to 3.3%. Policymakers also cut their outlook for growth in 2012 and raised estimates for unemployment.

On Thursday, U.S. data showed that the number of people in the filing for initial jobless benefits rose to a seasonally adjusted 429,000 in the week ending June 18, from 414,000 the previous week, confounding expectations for a decline to 410,000.

In the week ahead, the focus looks likely to remain on Greece, with the Greek parliament due to hold its critical vote on austerity measures on Wednesday and Thursday. Meanwhile, a relatively small amount of U.S. data is scheduled for release, with the main highlight looking likely to be Friday’s ISM manufacturing index.

Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets.

Monday, June 27

The U.S. is to publish government data on personal income and expenditure as well as a consumer price index.

Tuesday, June 28

Switzerland is to publish a consumption indicator, compiled by financial services firm UBS, which is a leading indicator of private consumption trends.

Later in the day, the U.S. is to publish industry data on house price inflation, a leading indicator of the housing industry's health as well as a report on consumer confidence, a leading indicator of consumer spending.

Wednesday, June 29

Switzerland is to publish an index of leading economic indicators, compiled by the KOF Economic Research Agency designed to predict the direction of the economy over the following six months.

Later Wednesday, the U.S. is to publish industry data on pending home sales as well as official data on crude oil stockpiles.

Thursday, June 30


The U.S. is to publish its weekly government report on initial jobless claims, as well as data on manufacturing activity in the Chicago region.

Friday, July 1

The U.S. is to round up the week with a report by the Institute of Supply Management on manufacturing activity and revised data on consumer sentiment and inflation expectations from the University of Michigan.

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