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Forex - USD/CHF weekly outlook: February 13 - 17

Published 02/12/2012, 05:13 AM
USD/CHF
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Investing.com - The U.S. dollar rose to a three-day high against the Swiss franc on Friday, paring some of the week’s losses as uncertainty over Greece’s ability to implement new austerity measures and avoid a default weighed on sentiment.

USD/CHF hit 0.9088 on Thursday, the pair’s lowest since December 1; the pair subsequently consolidated at 0.9164 by close of trade on Friday, shedding 0.38% over the week.

The pair is likely to find support at 0.9088, the low of February 9 and resistance at 0.9228, the high of January 26.

Market sentiment was hit on Friday as Greece's far-right party leader refused to back a bailout agreement, raising concerns that Greece could face a sovereign debt default.   

Greek political leaders had reached a long awaited consensus on Thursday on the conditions set by international creditors in exchange for a new bailout worth EUR130 billion.

Meanwhile, official data showed that the U.S. trade deficit widened to USD48.8 billion in December, from a deficit of USD47.1 billion the previous month. Analysts had expected the trade balance to widen to USD48.1 billion in December.

A separate report by the University of Michigan showed that its index of consumer confidence in the U.S. fell to 72.5 in February from 75.0 the previous month, disappointing expectations for a decline to 74.4.

In Switzerland, official data showed that consumer price inflation fell more-than-expected in January, ticking down 0.4% after a 0.2% decline the previous month. Analysts had expected Swiss CPI to fall 0.3% in January.

Demand for the safe haven dollar eased on Thursday after official data showed that U.S. jobless claims fell to an almost four-year low last week.

The U.S. Department of Labor said the number of individuals filing for initial jobless benefits last week fell by 15,000 to a seasonally adjusted 358,000, beating expectations for a decline to 370,000. The previous week’s figure was revised up to 373,000 from 367,000.

Jobless claims have remained below 400,000, a level historically associated with an improving labor market, in 13 of the past 15 weeks.
Meanwhile, the Swiss State Secretariat for Economic Affairs said its index of consumer climate rose to minus 19 in January from a reading of minus 24 in December.

Analysts had expected the index to improve to minus 22 in January.

The Swissie slipped against the greenback and tumbled to a three-week low against the euro on Wednesday after the acting head of the Swiss National Bank Thomas Jordan said that the 1.20 euro exchange rate cap on the franc was the most effective instrument the SNB had to protect the Swiss economy and reiterated a pledge to defend it. 

In the week ahead, euro zone finance ministers are expected to meet on Tuesday to discuss Greece’s bailout deal, which should lead to a final approval by the country’s international lenders, including the International Monetary Fund and the European Central Bank.

Investors will also be awaiting preliminary data on euro zone gross domestic product and U.S. retail sales, to assess the impact of the fiscal crisis in the euro zone on global growth.

Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets.

Monday, February 13

Switzerland is to release official data on producer price inflation, an important gauge of consumer inflation.

Tuesday, February 14

The U.S. is to produce official data on retail sales, as well as reports on import prices and business inventories, a signal of future business spending. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner is also due to speak later in the day.

Wednesday, February 15

Switzerland is to produce data on ZEW economic expectations, a leading gauge of economic health.

The U.S. is to release a report on the Empire State Manufacturing index, a leading indicator of economic health, followed by data on net foreign purchases of long-term securities. The Federal Reserve is also to publish data on its capacity utilization rate, an important indicator of consumer inflation, as well as on industrial production before releasing the minutes of its latest policy meeting later in the day. The country is also to produce an official report on crude oil stockpiles.

Thursday, February 16

The U.S. is to publish government data on building permits, an important gauge of future construction activity, and housing starts, as well as reports on producer price inflation and unemployment claims. In addition, the country is to produce data on manufacturing activity in the Philadelphia area. Later in the day, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke is due to speak.

Friday, February 17

The U.S. is to round up the week with a government report on consumer price inflation.


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