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Forex - USD/CHF weekly outlook: December 30 - January 3

Published 12/29/2013, 05:38 AM
Swissie climbs to 25-month high against the U.S. dollar before trimming gains
USD/CHF
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Investing.com - The U.S. dollar fell to the lowest level since November 2011 against the Swiss franc on Friday before trimming losses, as poor year-end liquidity exaggerated market moves.

USD/CHF hit a session low of 0.8800, the pair’s lowest since November 4, 2011. The pair subsequently consolidated at 0.8916 by close of trade, down 0.56% for the day and 0.51% lower for the week.

The pair is likely to find support at 0.8800, Friday’s low and resistance at 0.8967, the high of December 26.

The Swissie rallied along with other European currencies, such as the euro and the pound, after European Central Bank Governing Council member Jens Weidmann said keeping interest rates low may endanger political reforms.

According to Germany’s Bild newspaper, Weidmann said low inflation shouldn’t be used to justify loose monetary policy. "We must take care to raise interest rates again in a timely manner should inflation pressures build," he reportedly added.

Demand for the greenback remained supported amid expectations of further stimulus tapering by the Federal Reserve. The U.S. central bank will start reducing its bond-buying stimulus program by USD10 billion a month in January, amid indications of an improving U.S. economy.

Some market participants believe the Fed will likely reduce its bond purchases by USD10 billion in each of its next seven meetings before ending the program in December 2014, as the U.S. recovery deepens.

In the week ahead, the U.S. is to publish reports on pending home sales, consumer confidence and jobless claims, as investors attempt to gauge the strength of the world’s largest economy.

Trading volumes are expected to remain light, with many markets closed for the New Year’s holiday, reducing liquidity in the market and increasing the volatility.

Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets.

Monday, December 30

The U.S. is to release private sector data on pending home sales, a leading indicator of economic health.

Tuesday, December 31

The U.S. is to produce private sector data on consumer confidence and house price inflation, as well as a report on manufacturing activity in the Chicago region.

Wednesday, January 1

Markets in Switzerland and the U.S. will remain closed for the New Year’s holiday.   

Thursday, January 2

Markets in Switzerland will remain closed in observance of Second New Year's Day.

In the U.S., the Institute of Supply Management is to release its manufacturing PMI, while the Labor Department is to release its weekly report on initial jobless claims. The country is also to publish data on construction spending.

Friday, January 3

Switzerland is to publish the results of its SVME manufacturing PMI in addition to its KOF economic barometer.

The U.S. is to round up the week with official data crude oil stockpiles and natural gas inventories.

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