Forex - USD/CHF weekly outlook: December 24 - 28

Published 12/23/2012, 06:18 AM
USD/CHF
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Investing.com - The U.S. dollar regained strength against the Swiss franc on Friday, bouncing off a seven-month low amid growing pessimism a deal to avoid the looming fiscal cliff in the U.S. will be reached by the end of the year.

USD/CHF hit 0.9082 on Wednesday, the pair’s lowest since May 2; the pair subsequently consolidated at 0.9174 by close of trade, 0.25% lower for the week.

The pair was likely to find support at 0.9082, Thursday’s low and resistance at 0.9185, the high from December 18.

The dollar strengthened broadly on Friday as investors continued to monitor developments surrounding the fiscal cliff in the U.S., approximately USD600 billion in automatic tax hikes and spending cuts due to come into effect on January 1.

Doubts over whether a deal will be reached ahead of the year-end intensified late Thursday after House Speaker John Boehner pulled his so-called “Plan B” fiscal cliff option, which called for tax increases only on Americans earning USD1 million or more per year, because his Republican colleagues did not support the legislation.

The U.S. House has adjourned for the Christmas holiday, fueling speculation that policymakers will not be able to avert the fiscal cliff. Without a deal, the U.S. could fall back into recession and drag much of the world down with it.

Adding to the negative trade environment, Italian Prime Minister Mario Monti tendered his resignation after only 13 months in office, paving the way for a highly uncertain national election in February.

The news prompted investors to shun riskier assets, like stocks and high yielding currencies, and move in to safe-haven assets, such as the U.S. dollar and Treasurys.

On the data front, the U.S. Census Bureau reported that core durable goods orders, which exclude transportation items, rose 1.6% in November, defying expectations for a 0.2% decline.

Total durable goods orders rose by 0.7% last month, outpacing consensus forecasts for a 0.2% increase.

Meanwhile, a separate Commerce Department report revealed that personal spending in the U.S. rose by 0.4% in November, beating expectations for a 0.3% rise.

Also in the U.S., the University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index slumped unexpectedly in December, possibly due to fears the U.S. will careen over the fiscal cliff.

The index dipped to 72.9 for December from 74.5 the previous month, missing analysts' call for an improvement to 74.7 this month.

In the week ahead trading volumes are expected to remain light because many traders have closed books to lock in profit before the end of the year, reducing liquidity in the market and increasing the volatility.

Meanwhile, the U.S. is to release key reports on consumer confidence, jobless claims and home sales.

Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets.

Monday, December 24

U.S. equity markets will close early at 13:30EST (18:30 GMT) for the Christmas Eve holiday.

Tuesday, December 25

Markets in the U.S. and Switzerland will remain closed in observance of the Christmas Day holiday.

Wednesday, December 26

Markets in Switzerland will remain closed for the Boxing Day holiday.

Meanwhile, the U.S. is to publish industry data on house price inflation, a leading indicator of demand in the housing market. The U.S. is also to release data on manufacturing activity in Richmond.

Thursday, December 27

In Switzerland, UBS bank is to publish its consumption indicator, an important indicator of consumer confidence.

Later in the day, the U.S. is to publish its weekly government report on initial jobless claims, as well as data on new home sales and consumer confidence.

Friday, December 28

The U.S. is to round up the week with data on pending home sales, as well as a report on business conditions in the Chicago area, a leading indicator of economic health. The country is also to release official data on crude oil stockpiles and natural gas inventories.

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