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Forex - USD/CHF weekly outlook: December 17 - 21

Published 12/16/2012, 06:01 AM
USD/CHF
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Investing.com - The U.S. dollar dropped to seven-month lows against the Swiss franc on Friday as more easing by the Federal Reserve weighed on dollar demand and offset concerns over the U.S. fiscal cliff.

USD/CHF hit 0.9165 on Friday, the pair’s lowest since May 4; the pair subsequently consolidated at 0.9474 by close of trade, 2.07% lower for the week.

The pair was likely to find support at 0.9073, the low of March 2 and resistance at 0.9246, Friday’s high.

The dollar weakened broadly on Friday after weak U.S. inflation data warranted continued monetary easing by the Federal Reserve.

The Department of Labor said U.S. consumer inflation fell 0.3% in November, down for the first time in six months on the back of lower gasoline prices, bringing the annualized rate of inflation to 1.8%.

The Federal Reserve said Wednesday that interest rates would remain close to zero as long as inflation forecasts remain near the bank’s 2% target and until the U.S. unemployment rate declines to 6.5% or less.

The U.S. central bank also said it would continue to purchase USD85 billion a month of government bonds and mortgage based securities in order to shore up the economic recovery.

This overshadowed concerns over the U.S. fiscal cliff, approximately USD600 billion of automatic tax hikes and spending cuts due to take effect on January 1 which investors’ fears could derail the U.S. recovery, if lawmakers cannot reach an agreement.

The Swiss franc was little changed against the dollar on Thursday after the Swiss National Bank kept interest rates unchanged at zero in a widely expected decision and said it was ready “to take further measures at any time" should conditions require.

The SNB forecast that the economy will expand between 1% and 1.5% next year and revised down its forecast for consumer inflation to 0.1%, compared to a previous forecast for an increase of 0.2%.

The central bank reiterated that it would purchase foreign currencies in “unlimited quantities” in order to maintain the minimum exchange rate floor of 1.20 per euro.

In the week ahead, investors will be continuing to monitor the progress on talks in Washington on the fiscal cliff. Market participants will also be awaiting Thursday’s data on the Swiss trade balance.

Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets.

Monday, December 17

The U.S. is to publish official data on manufacturing activity in New York State, a leading indicator of economic health, as well as a report on the balance of domestic and foreign investment in U.S. securities.

Tuesday, December 18

The U.S. is to produce government data on the current account.

Wednesday, December 19

The U.S. is to publish government data on building permits, an excellent gauge of future construction activity, as well as data on housing starts. The country is also to release official data on crude oil stockpiles.

Thursday, December 20

Switzerland is to release official data on the trade balance, the difference in value between imports and exports.

The U.S. is to release the weekly report on initial jobless claims, as well as revised data on third quarter growth and a report on manufacturing activity in Philadelphia. In addition, the U.S. is to publish industry data on existing home sales, a leading indicator of economic health.

Friday, December 21

The U.S. is to round up the week with revised data on consumer sentiment from the University of Michigan, as well as government data on personal income and spending.



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