Forex - USD/CHF weekly outlook: April 30 - May 4

Published 04/29/2012, 06:32 AM
Investing.com - The U.S. dollar fell to a three-week low against the Swiss franc on Friday, as the greenback weakened broadly after downbeat U.S. growth data sparked new expectations for additional easing measures by the Federal Reserve.

USD/CHF hit 0.9052 on Friday, the pair’s lowest since April 3; the pair subsequently consolidated at 0.9060 by close of trade on Friday, shedding 0.55% over the week.

The pair was likely to find support at 0.9032, the low of March 29 and resistance at 0.9132, Friday’s high.

The Commerce Department said gross domestic product in the U.S. expanded at a rate of 2.2% in the three months to March, below expectations for a 2.5% increase.

Earlier in the week, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke left open the possibility of further measures to bolster economic growth, following the central bank’s monetary policy meeting.

A separate report by the University of Michigan showed that its index of consumer sentiment rose unexpectedly to 76.4 in April, from 75.7 the previous month.

Analysts had expected the index to remain unchanged at 75.7 in April.

Meanwhile, a report by the KOF Economic Research Agency showed that its economic barometer for Switzerland rose to 0.40 in April, above expectations for a rise to 0.26 and following a reading of 0.09 the previous month.

The data came as the Swiss National Bank's new President Thomas Jordan said that the Swiss franc is still overvalued at 1.20 against the euro, presenting a major challenge for the economy.

Speaking at the central bank's annual general meeting in Berne, he also reiterated the SNB’s pledge to enforce the minimum exchange rate with utmost determination.

Elsewhere, a well-received auction of Italian government debt earlier Friday eased investor concerns over the euro zone, following a two-notch downgrade of Spain by ratings agency Standard & Poor’s.

S&P cut Spain’s long-term credit rating to BBB+ from A and gave it a negative outlook on Thursday, saying that the recession will undermine government efforts to reduce one of the largest budget deficits in the single currency bloc.

In the week ahead, Friday’s data on U.S. non-farm payrolls will be eagerly anticipated amid concerns that the economic recovery in the U.S. is losing momentum.

Meanwhile, Switzerland is to release government data on retail sales, as well as official data on manufacturing sector activity.

Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets.

Monday, April 30

The U.S. is to publish official data on core personal consumption expenditures price inflation and on personal spending, followed by a report on business activity in Chicago.

Tuesday, May 1

Markets in Switzerland are to remain closed due to national holidays.
In the U.S., the Institute for Supply Management is to release a closely watched report on manufacturing activity.

Wednesday, May 2

Switzerland is to release government data on retail sales, as well as official data on manufacturing sector activity.

Later in the day, the U.S. is to produce a report on non-farm employment change, a leading indicator of economic health, followed by government data on factory orders and crude oil stockpiles.

Thursday, May 3

The U.S. is to produce government data on unemployment claims, as well as preliminary data on nonfarm productivity and unit labor costs, an important signal of consumer inflation. The country is also to publish an ISM report on service sector growth.

Friday, May 4

The U.S. is to round up the week by publishing its closely watched government data on non-farm employment change and the unemployment rate, as well as a report on average hourly earnings.


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