Forex - USD/CAD weekly outlook: September 27- October 1

Published 09/26/2010, 08:38 AM
USD/CAD
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Investing.com – Last week saw the Canadian dollar rally against its U.S. counterpart, closing trade at a 3-day high, as concerns that the U.S. economic recovery is faltering weighed on the U.S. dollar.

USD/CAD hit 1.0190 on Wednesday; the pair's lowest since August 6; the pair subsequently consolidated at 1.0239 by close of trade on Friday, having shed 0.76% over the week.

The pair is likely to find support at 1.0190 last Wednesday's low and resistance at 1.0378, last Thursday's high.

On Tuesday, in their monetary policy statement for October, Federal Reserve officials said the U.S. economic recovery was likely to remain modest in the near term and indicated concern over sluggish U.S. growth and continuing low levels of inflation.

The statement fuelled concerns that the Fed may begin another round of asset purchases, known as quantitative easing to bolster flagging U.S. growth and reduce the risk of the U.S. falling into deflation.

Meanwhile, on Friday, Bank of Canada Governor Mark Carney said that there are limits as to how far his country's monetary policy can diverge from that of its U.S. counterpart and indicated that the bank may hold off on further interest rate increases if the Fed eases monetary policy.

Next week, the U.S. is to release key weekly data on initial jobless claims as well as data on unemployment, consumer confidence and manufacturing. The country is also to release final GDP data while Federal Reserve chief Ben Bernanke is to speak at two public engagements.

Canada is to produce its monthly report on GDP as well as key data on inflation. Also next week, BoC governor Carey is to speak at a public engagement.

Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect USD/CAD. The guide begins on Tuesday, as there are no such events on Monday.

Tuesday, September 28

The U.S. is to publish data on consumer confidence, a leading indicator of consumer spending, which accounts for approximately 70% of all economic activity. The country is also due to release industry data on house prices as well as a report on manufacturing activity in the Richmond area.

Wednesday, September 29

In the U.S., President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston Eric Rosengren is due to speak on the nation’s economy. His comments will be closely scrutinized for any clues to the future direction of monetary policy.

The country is also to produce data on crude oil inventories. This data can be a big market mover for the loonie as the U.S. is a major importer of Canadian crude oil.

Also Wednesday, Canada is to produce data on raw material purchase prices and producer price inflation, both leading indicators of economic growth.

Thursday, September 30


The U.S. is to release final data on its gross domestic product, the leading indicator of economic growth. The country is also due to produce key data on initial jobless claims and manufacturing activity in Chicago.

Later in the day, Federal Reserve Chairmen Ben Bernanke is expected to deliver a speech on the U.S. economy. His comments will be closely scrutinized for any clues to the future direction of monetary policy.

Elsewhere, Canada is to publish a monthly report on GDP, the leading indicator of economic growth while BoC governor Mark Carey is to speak at a public engagement. His comments will be closely scrutinized for any clues to the future direction of Canadian monetary policy.

Friday, October 1

The U.S. is to round up the week by producing key data on personal spending and income, while the University of Michigan is to release revised data on consumer sentiment and inflation expectations. The country is also to release official data on manufacturing conditions, total vehicle sales and construction spending.

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