Forex - USD/CAD weekly outlook: September 26-30

Published 09/25/2011, 08:42 AM
USD/CAD
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Investing.com – Last week saw the U.S. dollar surge to an 11-month high against its Canadian counterpart, climbing above parity as mounting concerns over the global economic outlook prompted investors to shun riskier assets. 

USD/CAD hit 1.0360 on Thursday, the highest since October 19, 2010; the pair subsequently consolidated at 1.0277 by close of trade on Friday, tumbling 4.52% on the week, the biggest weekly drop since October 2008.

The pair is likely to find support at 1.0051, Thursday’s low and resistance at 1.0360, Thursday’s high and an 11-month high.

The greenback rose above parity against the loonie on Wednesday after the Federal Reserve warned of “significant downside risks” facing the U.S. economy and announced fresh measures to boost growth.

The Fed unveiled a plan to trade short-term bonds for long-term ones, in an attempt to boost the economy by pushing down long-term interest rates, a move dubbed “Operation Twist.”

The loonie added to heavy losses on Thursday after a preliminary reading of the HSBC China purchasing managers' index fell to a two-month low of 49.4 in September, while a separate report showed that manufacturing activity in the euro zone slumped to the lowest since August 2009 in September.

The loonie came under further pressure as crude oil futures for delivery in November settled at a six-week low of USD79.98 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange by close of trade Friday, plunging 8.85% on the week.

Raw materials, including oil account for about half of Canada’s export revenue.

The loonie was little changed on Friday after financial leaders from the Group of 20 nations said they would take "all steps necessary" to calm the global financial system and said central banks were ready to provide liquidity, after holding talks in Washington.

Also last week, official data showed that Canadian core retail sales, which exclude automobile sales, were flat in July, confounding expectations for a 0.2% gain, while retail sales, including the more volatile items, fell by 0.6%, worse than the expected 0.3% decline.

In the week ahead, developments in Greece look likely to remain in focus while investors will be closely watching U.S. data on second quarter economic growth in order to gauge the strength of the U.S. economic recovery.

Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets.

Monday, September 26

The U.S. is to produce government data on new home sales, a leading indicator of economic health.

Tuesday, September 27

The U.S. is to publish industry data on house prices, as well as a report on consumer confidence, a leading indicator of consumer spending.

Wednesday, September 28

The U.S. is to produce official data on durable goods orders, a leading indicator of production. In addition, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke is to speak; his comments will be closely watched for clues regarding future monetary policy.

The U.S. is also to publish government data on crude oil stockpiles, which can be a big market mover for the loonie, due to the size of Canada’s energy sector.

Thursday, September 29

Canada is to publish official data on raw material price inflation, a leading indicator of consumer inflation.

Meanwhile, the U.S. is to publish its weekly report on initial jobless claims, as well as industry data on pending home sales. The country is also to publish revised data on second quarter gross domestic product, the broadest measure of economic activity and the primary gauge of the economy's health.

Friday, September 30

Canada is to release government data on its gross domestic product for July, the broadest measure of economic activity and the primary gauge of the economy's health.

The U.S. is to round up the week with official data on personal spending and inflation as well as a report on manufacturing activity in the Chicago area. Meanwhile, the University of Michigan is to publish revised data on consumer sentiment and inflation expectations.


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