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Forex - USD/CAD weekly outlook: September 2 - 6

Published 09/01/2013, 08:40 AM
USD/CAD
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Investing.com - The Canadian dollar was almost unchanged against the U.S. dollar on Friday after Canadian data on gross domestic product was less weak than feared, but concerns over a U.S. military strike against Syria continued to support safe haven demand for the greenback.

USD/CAD rose to highs of 1.0557, the highest since August 23, before trimming back gains to settle at 1.0531, 0.02% lower for the day, and 0.30% higher for the week.

The pair is likely to find support at 1.0478, Thursday’s low and resistance at 1.0567, the high of August 23.

Expectations for a military intervention mounted after U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry said Friday that the U.S. would punish Syrian President Bashar al-Assad for a "brutal and flagrant" chemical weapons attack that killed nearly 1,500 people in Damascus.

Demand for the Canadian dollar continued to be supported after official data showed that the Canadian economy contracted at a slower-than-forecast rate in June.

Statistics Canada said gross domestic product contracted 0.5% in June, compared to forecasts for a 1% contraction, after expanding by 0.2% in May.

The Canadian economy expanded by 1.7% on a year-over-year basis in the second quarter, after expanding by an annualized 2.2% in the first quarter.

Meanwhile, data showed that U.S. consumer sentiment was lower in August, pulling back from July’s six-year high. The final reading of the University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index slipped to 82.1 from a final reading of 85.1 in July.

The report came one day after official data showed that U.S. second quarter growth was revised sharply higher, indicating that the economic recovery is on track.

The Commerce Department said gross domestic product expanded at an annual rate of 2.5% in the three months to June, above expectations for growth of 2.2% and up from a preliminary estimate of 1.7%.

The upbeat data reinforced the view that the Federal Reserve could start phasing out stimulus measures as soon as next month.

In the week ahead, markets in the U.S. and Canada are to remain closed on Monday for the Labor Day holiday. Investors will be closely watching Friday’s key U.S. nonfarm payrolls report, amid ongoing speculation over when the Fed will start to unwind stimulus measures.

Wednesday’s Bank of Canada rate decision and monetary policy statement will also be in focus.

Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets.

Monday, September 2

Markets in the U.S. and Canada are to remain closed for the Labor Day holiday.

Tuesday, September 3

The Institute of Supply Management is to release data on manufacturing activity in the U.S., a leading indicator of economic health.

Wednesday, September 4

Both the U.S. and Canada are to release data on the trade balance, the difference in value between imports and exports.

Later Wednesday, the BoC is to announce its benchmark interest rate and publish its rate statement, which outlines economic conditions and the factors affecting the monetary policy decision.

Thursday, September 5

The U.S. is to release the ADP nonfarm payrolls report on private sector job creation, as well as the weekly government report on initial jobless claims.

Later Thursday, the ISM is to release data on non-manufacturing activity in the U.S., a leading indicator of economic health.

Friday, September 6

Canada is to release official data on the change in the number of people employed and the unemployment rate. In addition, Canada is to publish its Ivey PMI.

The U.S. is to round up the week with closely watched government data on nonfarm payrolls and the unemployment rate, as well as data on average hourly earnings.



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