Forex - USD/CAD weekly outlook: September 19-23

Published 09/18/2011, 08:37 AM
USD/CAD
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Investing.com – The U.S. dollar fell sharply against its Canadian counterpart on Friday, dropping to a two-week low after official data showed that purchases of Canadian securities by foreign investors rose to a record-high in July, enhancing the appeal of the loonie.

USD/CAD hit 0.9777 on Friday, the lowest since September 2; the pair subsequently consolidated at 0.9779 by close of trade on Friday, tumbling 1.94% on the week.

The pair is likely to find support at 0.9725, the low of August 31 and resistance at 0.9948, Thursday’s high.

Statistics Canada said in a report on Friday that foreign investors bought a net CAD11.78 billion of Canadian securities in July, blowing past expectations for acquisitions of CAD2.0 billion.

The report added that purchases of Canadian bonds totaled CAD7.3 billion in July, the highest since CAD5.8 billion in March 2009.

Demand for domestic securities and currency demand are directly linked because foreigners must buy the domestic currency to purchase the nation's securities.

On Thursday, the greenback came under pressure after the European Central Bank announced that it would provide additional dollar liquidity to euro area lenders in a move coordinated with the Federal Reserve and other major central banks.

The U.S. dollar was also hit after government data showed that U.S. retail sales were unchanged in August, following a smaller-than-expected 0.3% gain in July, while a separate report showed that U.S. jobless claims rose more-than-expected.

Other reports showed that U.S. consumer prices rose slightly more than expected last month while manufacturing activity in New York contracted unexpectedly.

The U.S. dollar rose above parity against the loonie on Monday, climbing to an eight-month high of 1.0026 as fears over a potential Greek debt default prompted investors to dump riskier assets, boosting demand for the safe haven greenback.

In the coming week, investors will be watching the outcome of the Federal Reserve’s extended policy setting meeting on Wednesday for any signs that the bank is looking at providing fresh monetary stimulus to support the economy, while developments in the euro zone also look likely to remain in focus.

Meanwhile, Canada is to produce official data on consume price inflation as well as a report on retail sales.

Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets. The guide skips Friday, as there are no relevant events on that day.

Monday, September 19


Bank of Canada Deputy Governor Timothy Lane is to speak at a public event in Toronto. His public engagements are often used to drop subtle clues regarding future monetary policy.

Tuesday, September 20

Canada is to publish an index of leading economic indicators, designed to forecast the future direction of the economy, as well as government data on wholesale sales. In addition, the Governor of the Bank of Canada, Mark Carney is to speak.

Meanwhile, the U.S. is to publish government data on building permits, an excellent gauge of future construction activity, as well as a report on housing starts, a leading indicator of economic health.

Wednesday, September 21

Canada is to produce government data on consumer price inflation, which accounts for a majority of overall inflation.

The U.S. is to publish industry data on existing home sales as well as a government report on crude oil inventories, which can be a big market mover for the loonie, due to the size of Canada’s energy sector.

In addition, the Federal Reserve is to announce the federal funds rate. The bank's rate statement will be closely watched by investors for any clues to the future direction of monetary policy.

Thursday, September 22

Canada is to produce government data on retail sales, the primary gauge of consumer spending, which accounts for the majority of overall economic activity.

In addition, the U.S. is to publish its weekly report in initial jobless claims.

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