Forex - USD/CAD weekly outlook: October 29 - November 2

Published 10/28/2012, 09:48 AM
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Investing.com - The U.S. dollar ended the week higher against its Canadian counterpart on Friday, but remained just below parity after stronger-than-expected third quarter U.S. growth dampened demand for the safety of the greenback.

USD/CAD hit 0.9994 of Friday, the pair’s highest since August 7; the pair subsequently consolidated at 0.9971 by close of trade, 0.27% higher for the week.

The pair is likely to find support at 0.9942, the low of October 22 and near-term resistance at 1.0021, the high of August 6.

The Commerce Department reported that the U.S. economy grew by a better-than-forecast 2% in the three months to September, on the back of stronger consumer spending, after expanding by 1.3% in the preceding quarter. Economists had predicted growth of 1.9%.

Earlier in the week, the Federal Reserve said the U.S. economy was improving moderately, but said job growth has been slow and the unemployment rate remains elevated.

In its rate statement on Wednesday, the central bank also said it planned to keep its benchmark short-term rate close to zero through mid-2015.

But risk appetite was tempered as investors continued to await any indication that Spain is moving closer to formally requesting a bailout from its euro zone partners and activating the European Central Bank’s bond purchasing plan.

Meanwhile, concerns over political uncertainty in Greece and doubts over whether the country will meet austerity targets weighed.

The Canadian dollar remained little changed after ratings agency Moody’s said Friday that it is set to review six Canadian banks, pending possible downgrades, citing high levels of household debt and elevated home prices.

The announcement came after Wednesday’s Bank of Canada monetary policy report warned that the biggest domestic risk to the economy comes from record levels of household debt.

The BoC also said it envisaged "gradual" interest rate increases over the next two years after leaving its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 1.00% on Tuesday.

In the week ahead, investors will be focusing on Friday’s U.S. nonfarm payrolls data after the unemployment rate unexpectedly fell to 7.8% in September from 8.1% the previous month.

Canada is to publish monthly data on gross domestic product as well as official data on employment.

In addition, investors will be awaiting any indication that Spain is growing closer to requesting a bailout from its euro zone partners.

Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets.

Monday, October 29

The U.S. is to release government data on personal income, personal spending and core consumer inflation.

Tuesday, October 30

Canada is to produce government data on raw material price inflation, a leading indicator of consumer inflation.

The U.S. is to release data on consumer confidence, a leading indicator of economic health, as well as industry data on house price inflation, an important indicator of demand in the housing sector.

Wednesday, October 31

Canada is to publish official data on monthly GDP growth, a leading indicator of economic health.

In the U.S., payroll processing firm ADP is to release a report on nonfarm payrolls, a leading indicator of private sector job creation. The U.S. is also to publish official data on manufacturing activity in Chicago, as well as data on employment costs and crude oil stockpiles.

Thursday, November 1

The U.S. is to release private sector data on nonfarm payrolls, an important indicator of job creation. The U.S. is also to publish its weekly government report on initial jobless claims, as well as official data on nonfarm productivity and labor costs, important inflationary indicators.

In addition, the Institute of Supply Management is to publish data on U.S. manufacturing activity.

Friday, November 2

Canada is to release government data on employment change and the unemployment rate, a leading indicator of economic health.

The U.S. is to round up the week with the closely watched government report on nonfarm payrolls, a leading indicator of job creation in the economy, as well as data on the unemployment rate.

The U.S. is also to publish official data on average earnings and factory orders.



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