Forex - USD/CAD weekly outlook: October 11-15

Published 10/10/2010, 10:41 AM
USD/CAD
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Investing.com – Last week saw the U.S. dollar tumble to a 6-month low against its Canadian counterpart, as fears that further monetary easing may be required to support the U.S. economy overshadowed mixed Canadian economic data.
 
USD/CAD hit 1.0061 on Wednesday, the pair's lowest since April 30; the pair subsequently consolidated at 1.0108 by close of trade on Friday, gaining 0.78% over the week.

The pair is likely to find support at 1.0061, the low of October 6, and resistance at 1.0272, the high of October 5.

The Canadian dollar surged to a 6-month high against its U.S. counterpart on Wednesday after data showed that U.S. ADP non-farm payrolls declined unexpectedly in September.

The greenback pared losses on Thursday after official data showed that U.S. initial jobless claims rose more-than-expected in the week ending October 2, while a separate report showed that Canadian new building permits declined significantly more-than-expected in August.

But the greenback resumed its decline on Friday after official data showed that U.S. non-farm payrolls fell unexpectedly in September, down for the fourth consecutive month. The disappointing U.S. data overshadowed Canadian employment data, which showed that while the country’s unemployment rate declined in September, Canadian employers unexpectedly cut jobs during the month. 
   
Next week, the U.S. is to publish its closely watched weekly report on initial jobless claims as well as key data on inflation, retail sales and consumer sentiment. In addition, Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke is to speak at two public engagements, while the bank is to publish the minutes of the most recent meeting of its monetary policy committee.

Meanwhile, Canada is due to produce official data on its trade balance as well as a report on manufacturing sales.

Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect USD/CAD.

Monday, October 11

Markets in the U.S. will remain closed on Monday for the Columbus Day holiday, while markets in Canada will be closed in observance of Thanksgiving Day.

Tuesday, October 12

The U.S. is to publish the minutes of the most recent meeting of the Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee. The minutes provide in-depth insights into the economic conditions that influenced their vote on where to set interest rates.

Wednesday, October 13

The U.S. is to release key data on import prices, while Fed chair Ben Bernanke is due to speak at a public engagement. His comments will be closely scrutinized for any clues to the future direction of monetary policy.

Also Wednesday, Canada is due to release a report on house prices, a leading indicator of economic health.

Thursday, October 14

The U.S. is to release key weekly data on initial jobless claims, a leading indicator of overall economic health. The country will also publish a report on producer prices, as well information on natural gas and crude oil stockpiles. The report on crude oil inventories can be a big market mover for the loonie, as Canada is the largest foreign supplier of crude oil to the U.S.

Later in the day, both the U.S. and Canada will publish official data on their trade balances, the difference in value between imported and exported goods during the month. 

Friday, October 15

The U.S. is to round up the week by producing official data on retail sales, business inventories and its consumer price index, while the University of Michigan is to release preliminary data on consumer sentiment and inflation expectations. Also Friday, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York is due to release key data on the city’s manufacturing sector while Fed chair Ben Bernanke will be speaking at a public engagement.

Meanwhile, Canada is to end the week by releasing data on new motor vehicle sales as well as manufacturing sales, both leading indicators of economic health.


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