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Forex - USD/CAD weekly outlook: Oct 28 - Nov 1

Published 10/27/2013, 08:59 AM
USD/CAD
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Investing.com - The Canadian dollar ended the week at one-and-a-half month lows against the U.S. dollar on Friday after the Bank of Canada indicated that rates may remain on hold for longer than had been thought.

USD/CAD ended Friday’s session at 1.0450, 0.30% higher for the day, after rising as high as 1.0461 earlier, the highest since September 6. For the week, the pair jumped 1.39%.

The pair is likely to find support at 1.0409, Friday’s low and resistance at 1.0500.

The Canadian dollar dropped for a third day against the greenback after the BoC dropped language referring to the need for future rate hikes from its monetary policy statement on Wednesday.

Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz indicated the bank is not expecting to raise rates any time soon, and may even cut rates if economic conditions do not improve.

The central bank also cut its outlook for economic growth to 1.6% this year, down from 1.8% in July and said the economy would expand by 2.3% in 2014, down from 2.7%, as “uncertain global and domestic economic conditions” weigh on economic activity.

In the U.S. data on Friday showed that core durable goods orders unexpectedly fell 0.1% in September, the third consecutively decline. A separate report showed that the University of Michigan U.S. consumer sentiment index was revised down to a 10 month low in October.

The data cemented expectations that the Federal Reserve will maintain the current pace of its asset purchase program into early next year.

The Fed surprised investors when it unexpectedly refrained from scaling back asset purchases at its policy setting meeting in September, saying it wanted more evidence of an economic recovery.

In the week ahead, investors will be focused on the outcome of Wednesday’s Federal Reserve policy setting meeting. The central bank is expected to keep its USD85 billion-a-month asset purchase program on track.

Canada’s monthly report on gross domestic product will also be in focus.

Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets.

Monday, October 28

The U.S. is to produce reports on industrial production and the capacity utilization rate, as well as private sector data on pending home sales.

Tuesday, October 29

Canada is to release a report on raw material price inflation, a leading indicator of consumer inflation.

The U.S. is to produce data on retail sales, the government measure of consumer spending, which accounts for the majority of overall economic activity. The U.S. is also to publish data on producer price inflation and a report on consumer confidence, a leading economic indicator.

Wednesday, October 30

The U.S. is to release the ADP report on nonfarm payrolls and official data on consumer price inflation.

Later Wednesday, the Federal Reserve is to announce its federal funds rate and publish its rate statement. The statement is to be followed by a closely watched press conference with Chairman Ben Bernanke.

Thursday, October 31

Canada is to publish its monthly report on GDP, the broadest indicator of economic activity.

The U.S. is to release data on initial jobless claims and a report on manufacturing activity in the Chicago region.

Friday, November 1

The U.S. is to round up the week with a report from the Institute of Supply Management on manufacturing activity.





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