Forex - USD/CAD weekly outlook: November 29-December 3

Published 11/28/2010, 10:18 AM
USD/CAD
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Investing.com – Last week saw the Canadian dollar close lower against its U.S. counterpart for the third consecutive week, amid heightened risk aversion, as fears over euro zone sovereign debt contagion and escalating tensions on the Korean peninsula dampened demand for commodity-linked currencies.
 
USD/CAD hit 1.0263 on Tuesday, the pair's highest since October 28; the pair subsequently consolidated at 1.0210 by close of trade on Friday, gaining 0.45% over the week.

The pair is likely to find support at 1.0075, the low of November 25, and resistance at 1.0263, Wednesday’s high.

The loonie tumbled on Tuesday, falling to a 4-week low as risk aversion spiked after a military skirmish on the Korean peninsula and amid concerns over sovereign debt contagion in the euro zone. 

The loonie rallied Wednesday after media outlets reported that Russia had purchased a small amount of Canadian dollars and planed to increase the size of its Canadian dollar holdings in coming months as part of changes to its reserve holdings.
 
Meanwhile, official data released Wednesday painted a mixed picture of the U.S. economic recovery.

Department of Labor data showed that the number of people who filed for unemployment assistance in the U.S. in the week ended November 20 fell to the lowest level since July 2008. Separate reports showed that U.S. consumer sentiment rose to a 5-month high in November, while U.S. personal spending rose for the fourth consecutive month in October.

But official data also showed that U.S. durable goods orders tumbled unexpectedly in October, while U.S. new home sales also fell unexpectedly in October.

The loonie tumbled 1.17% on Friday after European officials denied reports that Portugal was under pressure to seek a bailout and after North Korea warned the U.S. that its plans for naval exercises with the South would drive the peninsula "closer to the brink of war."

Next week, the U.S. is to release data on ADP non-farm payrolls on Wednesday, ahead of the closely watched government data on non-farm employment on Friday. The government is also to publish its weekly report on initial jobless claims.

In addition, the U.S. is to release data on consumer confidence, pending home sales, manufacturing and service sector growth while the chairman of the Federal Reserve is to speak at a public engagement.

Meanwhile, Canada is to release key data on third quarter gross domestic product as well as a report on the country’s employment change unemployment rate.

Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets.

Monday, November 29


Canada is to publish a report on inflation and on its current account, the difference in value between imported and exported goods, services.

Tuesday, November 30

The U.S. is to publish industry data on house prices, an important indicator of economic health as well as data on consumer confidence, a leading indicator of consumer spending. The country is also to release an index of manufacturing growth in the Chicago area, while Federal Reserve Chairman, Ben Bernanke is to speak at a public engagement.

Meanwhile, Canada is to publish official data on its gross domestic product, the broadest measure of economic activity and the primary gauge of the economy's health.

Wednesday, December 1

The U.S. is to publish a key monthly report on ADP non-farm employment change, which leads government data by two days. The country is also to publish revised data on nonfarm productivity, as well as official data on manufacturing activity, construction spending, total vehicle sales and crude oil inventories.

The report on crude oil inventories can be a big market mover for the loonie, as Canada is the largest foreign supplier of crude oil to the U.S.

Later in the day, the Federal Reserve is to publish its Beige Book, a summary of the data the bank examines before setting the benchmark interest rate.

Thursday, December 2

The U.S. is to publish key weekly data on initial jobless claims, a leading indicator of overall economic health. The country will also release official data on pending home sales and natural gas storage.

Friday, December 3

The U.S. is to round up the week with key data on non-farm employment change and a report on the country's unemployment rate, both leading indicators of economic health. The country is also to publish industry data on service sector growth as well as official data on factory orders.

Meanwhile, Canada is to release key data on employment change and the country's unemployment rate, a leading indicator of economic health.


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