Forex - USD/CAD weekly outlook: November 22-26

Published 11/21/2010, 09:53 AM
USD/CAD
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Investing.com – Last week saw the Canadian dollar close lower against its U.S. counterpart for the second consecutive week after China introduced fresh monetary tightening measures to cool its rapidly growing economy, dampening demand for commodity-linked currencies.
 
USD/CAD hit 1.0260 on Wednesday, the pair's highest since October 28; the pair subsequently consolidated at 1.0170 by close of trade on Friday, gaining 0.58% over the week.

The pair is likely to find support at 1.0069, the low of November 16, and resistance at 1.0260, Wednesday’s high.

On Tuesday, the loonie tumbled amid concerns that China would introduce monetary tightening measures to slow its rapidly growing economy, and as fears over sovereign debt problems in peripheral euro zone nations, especially Ireland, intensified.
 
The loonie extended losses on Wednesday, falling to a 3-week low, after China’s State Council said that the country was drafting measures aimed at curbing commodity prices after official data showed that consumer prices surged to a 25-month high in October.

The move saw crude oil prices plunge 2.32%, hitting their lowest level since October 29. The Canadian dollar closely tracks changes in crude oil prices as crude oil is the country’s biggest export.

But the Canadian dollar rebounded on Thursday, snapping two days of declines, amid speculation that Ireland would accept a bailout from the European Union. The loonie continued to trim losses on Friday as equity markets gained. Canada’s currency tends to rise and fall with stocks and commodity prices.

But gains were limited after China’s central bank announced that it lifted reserve requirements for banks for the second time in two weeks. The move also fuelled speculation that China may increase its benchmark interest rate in the near future.    

Next week, the U.S. is due to release a slew of data in a week cut short by the Thanksgiving holiday on Thursday, including revised figures on gross domestic product for the third quarter, durable goods orders, and personal income. The country is also to release its weekly report on jobless claims, while the Fed is to release the minutes of its most recent monetary policy meeting.

Meanwhile, Canada is to publish official data on consumer price inflation as well as data on retail sales.

Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets. The guide skips Monday and Friday as there are no relevant events on these days.

Tuesday, November 23

The U.S. is to begin the week with revised figures on third quarter GDP, the leading indicator of economic growth. The country is also to publish industry data on existing home sales while the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond is to publish its manufacturing index. Later in the day, the Fed is to publish the minutes of its November monetary policy meeting, providing an in-depth insight into economic and financial conditions in the U.S.

Meanwhile, Canada is to publish official data on consumer price inflation as well as data on retail sales, a leading indicator of consumer spending, which accounts for the majority of overall economic activity.

Wednesday, November 24


The U.S. is to release a slew of data, with official data on initial jobless claims, a leading indicator of economic health as well as government data on personal spending, durable goods orders and new home sales. The country is also to publish revised data on consumer sentiment and inflation expectations as well as reports on crude oil and natural gas inventories.

The report on crude oil inventories can be a big market mover for the loonie, as Canada is the largest foreign supplier of crude oil to the U.S.

Meanwhile, Canada is to publish a report on corporate profits, a leading indicator of economic health.

Thursday, November 25


Markets in the U.S. will remain closed in observance of Thanksgiving Day.


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