Forex - USD/CAD weekly outlook: November 15-19

Published 11/14/2010, 09:40 AM
USD/CAD
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Investing.com – Last week saw the Canadian dollar retreat from a 7-month high against its U.S. counterpart to close sharply lower, as concerns that China will increase its benchmark interest rate dampened demand for growth-linked currencies.

USD/CAD hit 0.9977 on Thursday, the pair's lowest since April 26; the pair subsequently consolidated at 1.0120 by close of trade on Friday, tumbling 1.14% over the week.

The pair is likely to find support at 0.9977, last Thursday’ low, and resistance at 1.0201, the high of November 1.

The loonie tumbled to hit a 7-day low on Friday, as concerns that China would raise its benchmark interest rate mounted after official data showed Chinese consumer price inflation soared to a 25-month high in October. 

The loonie’s earlier gains came as crude oil prices rallied to a 25-month high on Thursday after official data showed U.S. crude oil inventories fell unexpectedly in the week ended November 5, dropping by 3.3 million barrels.

The Canadian dollar closely tracks crude oil prices as Canada is a major supplier of crude oil to the U.S.   

In the week ahead, the U.S. is to release a flurry of data with reports on retail sales, inflation, manufacturing, foreign investment and building permits. The country is also to release key weekly data on initial jobless claims and the chairman of the Federal Reserve is to speak at a public engagement.

Meanwhile, Canada is to release key data on manufacturing sales, while the Bank of Canada will publish its quarterly review.

Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets.

Monday, November 15

The U.S. will begin the week by publishing key monthly data on retail sales, a leading indicator of consumer spending which accounts for about 70% of all economic activity. In addition, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York is to publish its monthly manufacturing index, a leading indicator of economic health. The country is also to publish data on business inventories.

Meanwhile, Canada is to release a report on new motor vehicle sales, a sign of consumer confidence.

Tuesday, November 16

The U.S. is to publish key data on producer prices, a leading indicator of consumer inflation, as well as government data on the difference in value between foreign long-term securities purchased by U.S. citizens and U.S. long-term securities purchased by foreigners. The country is also to release official data on industrial production, a leading indicator of economic health as well as data on the capacity utilization rate.

Meanwhile, Canada is to produce key data on manufacturing sales, a leading indicator of economic health.

Wednesday, November 17

The U.S. is to publish official data on consumer price inflation, which accounts for the majority of overall inflation. The country is also to release official data on building permits and housing starts, both leading indicators of health in the housing sector as well as a report on crude oil inventories.

The report on crude oil inventories can be a big market mover for the loonie, as Canada is the largest foreign supplier of crude oil to the U.S.

Thursday, November 18

The U.S. is to release key weekly data on initial jobless claims, while the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia is due to release a report on the city’s manufacturing sector. The country is also due to publish an index of leading economic indicators, designed to predict the future direction of the economy, as well as a report on natural gas inventories.

Meanwhile, Canada is to publish a report on foreign securities purchases, a strong driver of currency demand. The country will also produce data on an index of leading economic indicators and a report on wholesale sales.

Later in the day, the Bank of Canada will publish its quarterly review, which includes articles related to the country’s economy written by analysts from the Department of Monetary and Financial Analysis.

Friday, November 19

The chairman of the Federal Reserve Ben Bernanke is to speak at a conference in Frankfurt, his comments will be closely watched for any clues to the future direction of monetary policy.

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