Forex - USD/CAD weekly outlook: November 12 - 16

Published 11/11/2012, 08:53 AM
USD/CAD
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Investing.com - The U.S. dollar ended Friday’s session close to a three-month high against the Canadian dollar as demand for risk sensitive currencies was hit by a combination of concerns over the outlook for the euro zone and U.S. fiscal policy.

USD/CAD hit 1.0032 on Friday, the pair’s highest since August 3; the pair subsequently consolidated at 1.0014 by close of trade, 0.58% higher for the week.

The pair is likely to find support at 0.9946, Thursday’s low and resistance at 1.0075, the high of August 3.

Concerns over the economic outlook for the euro zone mounted on Friday after Germany’s Economic Ministry warned that growth in the bloc’s largest economy was likely to weaken in the fourth quarter and going into the first quarter of 2013.

Market participants were also anticipating a Greek vote on the 2013 budget on Sunday, just days after the parliament narrowly approved a new austerity package needed to secure the next tranche of bailout funds.

Without the next aid installment, Greece risks default on November 16, when Athens must repay EUR5 billion of debts.

The greenback also found support amid concerns over the U.S. fiscal cliff, automatic tax hikes and spending cuts due to come into effect on January 1 unless lawmakers can reach an agreement, which could threaten U.S. and global growth.

In the U.S., data on Friday showed that consumer confidence improved more-than-expected in November.

The University of Michigan preliminary consumer sentiment index rose to 84.9, the fourth successive monthly increase and the highest level since July 2007, from 82.6 in October, compared to expectations for a reading of 83.0.

In Canada, data on Thursday showed that the trade deficit narrowed to CAD0.8 billion in September from a deficit of CAD1.5 billion in August.
Analysts had expected Canada’s trade deficit to widen to CAD2.0 billion.

In the coming week, investors will be anticipating preliminary data on third quarter growth from the euro zone, amid concerns that the economic downturn in the region is deepening. Markets will also be closely following developments in Greece and Spain.

In the U.S., the Federal Reserve is to publish the minutes of its most recent policy setting meeting.

Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets.

Monday, November 12

Markets in the U.S. and Canada are to remain closed on Monday for national holidays.

Tuesday, November 13

The U.S. is to release official data on the federal budget balance.

Wednesday, November 14

The U.S. is to produce government data on retail sales, the leading indicator of consumer spending, which accounts for the majority of overall economic activity.

The country is also to release official data on producer price inflation and business inventories, while the Fed is to publish the minutes of its most recent policy-setting meeting.

Thursday, November 15

Canada is to publish a government report on manufacturing sales, a leading indicator of economic health.

The U.S. is to release a flurry of data, with reports on initial jobless claims, consumer price inflation, crude oil stockpiles, in addition to data on manufacturing activity in New York and Philadelphia.

Meanwhile, a speech by Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke will be closely watched for any indications on the future possible direction of monetary policy.

Friday, November 16

Canada is to publish government data on foreign securities purchases.

The U.S. is to round up the week with official data on the capacity utilization rate and industrial production, as well as a report on the balance of domestic and foreign securities purchases.



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