Forex - USD/CAD weekly outlook: March 26 - 30

Published 03/25/2012, 09:04 AM
USD/CAD
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Investing.com - The U.S. dollar fell against its Canadian counterpart on Friday, trimming some of the week’s gains as risk sentiment slightly strengthened amid hopes for progress in handling the financial crisis in the euro zone.

USD/CAD hit 1.0033 on Friday, the pair’s highest since February 27; the pair subsequently consolidated at 0.9977 by close of trade on Friday, adding 0.67% over the week.

The pair is likely to find support at 0.9935, the low of March 6 and resistance at 1.0048, the high of February 27.

The risk-related loonie found support on Friday after euro zone finance ministers said they are moving closer to agreeing on a combined rescue fund of around EUR700 billion next week.

In Canada, official data showed that core consumer price inflation rose more-than-expected in February, ticking up 0.4% after a 0.2% rise the previous month. Analysts had expected core consumer price inflation to rise 0.3% in February.

The report also showed that consumer price inflation rose 0.4%, in line with expectations.

Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar weakened after the U.S. Commerce Department said new home sales dropped 1.6% to a 313,000 annual pace, the slowest since October, from a 318,000 annual rate in January and against expectations for an increase to 325,000.

But the greenback remained supported after the Federal Reserve upgraded its view on the economy earlier this month, leading investors to trim back expectations for a third round of monetary easing from the central bank.

The U.S. outlook was also boosted by data Thursday showing that jobless claims fell to the lowest level since February 2008 last week.

The Department of Labor said the number of individuals filing for initial jobless benefits in the week ending March 17 fell by 5,000 to a seasonally adjusted 348,000, beating expectations for a decline of 3,000 to 350,000.

The previous week’s figure was revised up to 353,000 from 351,000.

Also Thursday, Statistics Canada said that core retail sales, which exclude automobiles, fell 0.5% in January, disappointing expectations for a 0.5% rise. The previous month’s figure had been upwardly revised to a 0.3% rise from a flat reading.

The report also showed that retail sales rose less-than-expected, by 0.5%.

In addition, the loonie remained under pressure as light sweet crude futures for delivery in May settled at USD106.80 a barrel by close of trade on Friday on the New York Mercantile Exchange, dropping 0.98% over the week.

Raw materials, including oil account for about half of Canada’s export revenue.

In the week ahead, market participants will be looking ahead to Friday’s meeting of euro zone finance ministers to discuss the lending capacity of the region’s permanent bailout fund, the European Financial Stability Facility.

Meanwhile, the U.S. is to release data on consumer confidence, pending homes sales, and factory output, all of which will be closely watched in order to gauge the strength of the U.S. economic recovery.

Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets.

Monday, March 26

Elsewhere, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke is scheduled to speak at the National Association for Business Economists 2012 Policy Conference. The U.S. is also to publish industry data on pending home sales, a key gauge of economic health.

Later Monday, Bank of Canada Governor Mark Carney is to speak.

Tuesday, March 27

The U.S. is to produce a Standard & Poor’s/Case Shiller composite-20 house price inflation report, as well as industry data on consumer confidence.

Later in the day, Fed Chairman Bernanke is due to deliver the third part of a lecture titled "The Federal Reserve and its Role in Today's Economy" at the George Washington University School of Business, in Washington.

Wednesday, March 28

The U.S. is to publish government data on durable goods orders, a leading indicator of production, followed by a report on crude oil stockpiles.

Thursday, March 29

Canada is to produce official data on raw materials price inflation, a leading indicator of consumer inflation, followed by government data on the annual budget.

Later Thursday, the U.S. is to publish government data on unemployment claims, a key signal of overall economic health, as well as final data on fourth quarter GDP. Fed Chairman Bernanke is also due to speak.  

Friday, March 30

Canada is to release official data on GDP for January.

The U.S. is to round up the week with government data on personal consumption expenditures and personal spending as well as industry data on the purchasing managers’ index in Chicago. In addition, the University of Michigan is to release revised data on consumer sentiment.


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