Forex - USD/CAD weekly outlook: March 12-16

Published 03/11/2012, 08:55 AM
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Investing.com - The U.S. dollar was almost unchanged against its Canadian counterpart on Friday, as upbeat U.S. employment data sent the greenback broadly higher while the loonie remained supported by higher oil prices.

USD/CAD hit 1.0027 on Tuesday, the pair’s highest since February 27; the pair subsequently consolidated at 0.9902 by close of trade on Friday, adding 0.12% over the week.

The pair is likely to find support at 0.9847, the low of March 2 and resistance at 0.9959, the high of March 5.

The Department of Labor said on Friday that the U.S. economy added 227,000 jobs in February after increasing by a revised 284,000 the previous month. The unemployment rate held steady at a three year low of 8.3%.

The strong data boosted the dollar as it diminished expectations for a fresh round of asset purchases by the Federal Reserve to help stimulate economic growth.

A separate report showed that the U.S. trade deficit widened unexpectedly in January, falling to USD52.6 billion from a deficit of USD50.4 billion the previous month.

Analysts had expected the trade deficit to narrow to USD48.9 billion in January.

Meanwhile, the loonie remained supported as light sweet crude futures for delivery in April settled at USD107.42 a barrel by close of trade on Friday on the New York Mercantile Exchange, rising 0.53% over the week.

Raw materials, including oil account for about half of Canada’s export revenue.

Official data also showed that Canada’s trade surplus narrowed less-than-expected in January, declining to CAD2.1 billion from a surplus of CAD2.9 billion the previous month.

Analysts had expected the trade surplus to narrow to CAD2.0 billion in January.

A separate report showed that Canadian employment change fell unexpectedly to a seasonally adjusted minus 2,800 in February, from 2,300 the previous month, while the unemployment rate ticked down to 7.4% from 7.6%.

Earlier Friday, Greece announced that more than 85% of its private creditors had signed up to a debt swap deal, aimed at restructuring 53.5% of the country’s debt. The deal cleared the way for Athens to secure a second bailout worth EUR130 billion and avert a default.

But sentiment was hit after the International Swaps and Derivatives Association said the debt swap constituted a “credit event” that would activate credit-default swaps, which designed to protect investors against losses on Greek sovereign debt.

Investor confidence was also weighed by concerns over the economic outlook for the region after the European Central Bank revised down its forecast for growth in 2012 to a range of between minus 0.5% and 0.3% following Thursday’s policy meeting.

The central bank left its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 1% for the third consecutive month, in a widely expected decision.

Earlier in the week, the Bank of Canada also left its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 1%, saying that the outlook for the Canadian economy had “marginally improved” since the bank’s last policy meeting in January and adding that uncertainty over the global economic outlook had decreased.

In the week ahead, investors will be watching Tuesday’s U.S. data on retail sales in order to gage the strength of consumer spending as well as the Federal Reserve’s interest rate statement, also Tuesday.

Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets.

Monday, March 12

The U.S. is to publish government data on the federal budget balance.

Tuesday, March 13

The U.S. is to release government data on retail sales, the foremost indicator of consumer spending, which accounts for the majority of overall economic activity. The country is also to produce official data on business inventories, a signal of future business spending.

Also Tuesday, the Federal Reserve is to announce its benchmark interest rate; the announcement will be accompanied by the central bank’s rate statement.

Wednesday, March 14

Canada is to publish official data on the country’s capacity utilization rate, a key indicator of consumer inflation.

Later in the day, the U.S. is to produce official data on the country’s current account, as well as data on import prices and crude oil stockpiles. In addition, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke is also due to speak; his comments will be closely watched for clues to the future possible direction of monetary policy.

Thursday, March 15

Later Thursday, the U.S. is to release government data on producer price inflation, a leading indicator of consumer inflation, as well as official data on unemployment claims. The country is also to produce reports on manufacturing activity in New York and Philadelphia, as well as a government report on net long-term securities transactions.

Friday, March 16

Canada is to publish official data on foreign security purchases and on manufacturing sales, a leading indicator of economic health. 

The U.S. is to round up the week with government data on consumer price inflation, followed by reports from the Federal Reserve on the capacity utilization rate and industrial production. In addition, the country is also to release preliminary reports by the University of Michigan on consumer sentiment and inflation expectations.


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