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Forex - USD/CAD weekly outlook: July 16 - 20

Published 07/15/2012, 08:54 AM
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Investing.com - The Canadian dollar advanced to its highest level in a week against its U.S. counterpart on Friday, as investor appetite for riskier assets was boosted after Chinese economic growth figures met expectations.

USD/CAD hit 1.0128 on Friday, the pair’s lowest since July 5; the pair subsequently consolidated at 1.0138 by close of trade, down 0.65% on the week.

The pair is likely to find support at 1.0099, the low of July 5 and a two-month low and resistance at 1.0202, Friday’s high.

Market sentiment was boosted Friday after data showed that China’s gross domestic product expanded 7.6% in the second quarter, in line with expectations and better than the slower rates of growth some investors had feared.

But investors remained cautious after ratings agency Moody’s downgraded Italy's sovereign debt rating late Thursday, citing doubts over the government’s ability to enact badly-needed reforms.

Despite the downgrade, Italy managed to successfully auction the maximum EUR 5.25 billion of two and five-year bonds on Friday, but the yield on the country’s 10-year bonds climbed above 6% following the auction.

The loonie, as the Canadian dollar is sometimes known, rose to a record high against the euro on Friday, with EUR/CAD falling to 1.2375, before settling at 1.2418, down 0.15%.

In the U.S., data on Friday showed that consumer confidence unexpectedly dropped to the lowest level in seven months in July.

The University of Michigan said its index of consumer sentiment fell to a seasonally adjusted 72.0, from 73.2 in June, confounding expectations for an increase to 73.4.

A separate report showed that U.S. producer price inflation ticked up 0.1% in July, against expectations for a 0.5% decline.

The data came after Wednesday’s minutes from the Federal Reserve’s June meeting showed that few policymakers believed more asset purchases would be necessary to support growth in the economy.

In the week ahead, investors will be focusing on testimony by Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke, amid speculation over the possibility of more quantitative easing from the central bank.

Meanwhile, the Bank of Canada is to hold its monetary policy meeting on Tuesday.

Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets.

Monday, July 16

Canada is to release government data on foreign securities purchases, which is closely linked to currency demand.

The U.S. is to publish official data on retail sales, the foremost indicator of consumer spending, which accounts for the majority of overall economic activity. The country is also to release official data on business inventories and manufacturing activity in New York.

Tuesday, July 17

The BoC is to announce its benchmark interest rate. The announcement is to be accompanied by the bank’s rate statement, which outlines the reasons for the bank’s policy decision and discusses the economic outlook. Canada is also to produce official data on manufacturing sales, a leading indicator of economic health.

Also Tuesday, the U.S. is to publish official data on consumer price inflation, as well as reports on the capacity utilization rate and industrial production. In addition, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke is to testify on the on the bank’s monetary policy report before the Senate Banking Committee in Washington.

Wednesday, July 18

The BoC is to release its monetary policy report. The report is to be followed by a press conference to discuss the recent interest rate decision.

The U.S. is to publish official data on building permits, an excellent gauge of future construction activity, as well as a report on housing starts. The country is also to release government data on crude oil stockpiles.

Meanwhile, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke is to testify for a second day on the on the bank’s monetary policy report before the Senate Banking Committee in Washington.

Thursday, July 19

Canada is to release official data on wholesale sales, a leading indicator of consumer spending.

Later Thursday, the U.S. is to publish government data on initial jobless claims, as well as reports on existing home sales and manufacturing activity in Philadelphia.

Friday, July 20

Canada is to round up the week with official data on consumer price inflation, which accounts for the majority of overall inflation.


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