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Forex - USD/CAD weekly outlook: February 21-25

Published 02/20/2011, 07:54 AM
USD/CAD
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Investing.com – The Canadian dollar pared gains against its U.S. counterpart on Friday, easing off its highest level in almost three years, after official data showed that inflation slowed in January, dampening expectations for a rate increase by the Bank of Canada.

USD/CAD hit 0.9815 on Thursday, the pair’s lowest since March 2008; the pair subsequently consolidated at 0.9865 by close of trade on Friday, shedding 0.28% over the week.

The pair is likely to find short-term support at 0.9816, Thursday’s low and a 35-month low and resistance at 0.9902, Wednesday’s high.

The Canadian dollar weakened after data on Friday showed that consumer prices increased 2.3% last month from a year earlier, after a 2.4% annual rate of advance in December. Analysts had expected the annual rate of consumer price inflation to remain unchanged in January.

The loonies earlier gains came as crude oil, Canada’s largest export, rallied. Brent crude for April settlement gained for a fourth week, rising 2.1% to USD103.03 a barrel on the ICE Futures Europe exchange. Crude oil for April delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange advanced 0.9% to USD89.90 a barrel.

Next week, the biggest focus will be the release on Friday of preliminary data on fourth quarter U.S. gross domestic product. Before that, markets in the U.S. are to remain closed on Monday for a national holiday.

Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets.

Monday, February 21


Markets in the U.S. are to remain closed for the President’s Day holiday.

Tuesday, February 22

Canada is to publish government data on retail sales, the primary gauge of consumer spending, which accounts for the majority of overall economic activity.

Meanwhile, the U.S. is to publish data on consumer confidence compiled by the Conference Board as well as industry data on house prices and a report on manufacturing activity in Richmond.

Wednesday, February 23


The U.S. is to publish industry data on existing home sales, a leading indicator of economic health.

Thursday, February 24


The U.S. is to publish a flurry of data, with reports on durable goods orders, a leading indicator of production as well as data on initial jobless claims, an important signal of overall economic health. The country is also to publish a report on new home sales.

Friday, February 25


The U.S. is to round up the week with preliminary data on fourth quarter GDP, the broadest measure of economic activity and the primary gauge of the economy's health. Meanwhile, the University of Michigan is to publish revised data on consumer sentiment and inflation expectations.

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