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Forex - USD/CAD weekly outlook: February 18 - 22

Published 02/17/2013, 07:42 AM
USD/CAD
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Investing.com - The Canadian dollar was lower against the U.S. dollar on Friday after weaker-than-forecast Canadian manufacturing sales data added to concerns over the outlook for the economy.

USD/CAD hit a session high of 1.0082 on Friday, the pair’s highest since February 12, before settling back at 1.0068, 0.57% higher for the day and up 0.14% for the week.

The pair is likely to find support at 1.0010, Friday’s low and resistance at 1.0099, the high of January 19 and a six-month high.

Statistics Canada said manufacturing sales dropped by 3.1% in December, far more than expectations for a 1% decline, following an upwardly revised gain of 1.9% in November.

Earlier in the week, Bank of Canada Governor Mark Carney reiterated that rate hikes are less urgent as a result of a more subdued inflation outlook and imbalances in the household sector.

The comments were made in testimony before a Canadian parliamentary committee to review the BoC’s quarterly monetary policy report.

In the U.S., data on Friday indicated that the economic recovery remains uneven.

The New York Federal Reserve reported manufacturing in New York state expanded in February, while a survey showed a surprisingly strong rise in U.S. consumer sentiment.

The Empire State manufacturing index rebounded to 10.0 in February, from minus 7.8 in January, outstripping expectations for a reading of minus 2.

The University of Michigan said its index of consumer confidence rose to 76.3 from 73.8 in January, better than expectations for a reading of 74.8.

However, a separate report showed that industrial production in the U.S. slipped 0.1% in December after a revised 0.4% gain in December. Economists had been expecting an uptick of 0.2%.

Elsewhere Friday, a draft statement by the Group of 20 nations avoided singling Japan out for criticism over the recent weakness of its currency.

The G20 pledged that members would "refrain from competitive
devaluation" and said that risks to the world economy had receded but growth remained too weak and unemployment too high.

In the week ahead investors will be awaiting Wednesday’s minutes of the Federal Reserve’s January meeting, while Canadian data on retail sales and inflation will also be closely watched.

Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets.

Monday, February 18

Markets in the U.S. are to remain closed for the President’s Day holiday.

Tuesday, February 19

Canada is to produce official data on wholesale sales, a leading indicator of consumer spending, as well as data on foreign securities purchases.

Wednesday, February 20

The U.S. is to release official data on building permits, a strong indicator of future construction activity, as well as data on housing starts. The U.S. is also to publish official data on producer prices, while the Federal Reserve is to release the minutes of its most recent policy meeting.

Thursday, February 21

The U.S. is to release official data on consumer price inflation as well as the weekly government report on initial jobless claims. The U.S. is also to publish industry data on existing home sales, a report on manufacturing activity in Philadelphia and official data on crude oil stockpiles.

Friday, February 22

Canada is to round up the week with official data on consumer price inflation and retail sales, the government measure of consumer spending, which accounts for the majority of overall economic activity.



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