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Forex - USD/CAD weekly outlook: December 17 - 21

Published 12/16/2012, 07:59 AM
USD/CAD
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Investing.com -The U.S. dollar edged higher against the Canadian dollar on Friday, trimming some of the week's losses as poor Canadian manufacturing data and ongoing concerns over the U.S. fiscal cliff enhanced the safe haven appeal of the greenback.

USD/CAD hit 0.9824 on Thursday, the pair’s lowest since October 18; the pair subsequently consolidated at 0.9853 by close of trade on Friday, 0.17% lower for the week.

The pair is likely to find support at 0.9801, the low of October 17 and resistance at 0.9932, the high of December 7.

The Canadian dollar turned lower after official data showed that domestic manufacturing sales fell unexpectedly in October, as the stronger Canadian dollar and a slowdown in global economic growth weighed.

Statistics Canada said manufacturing sales fell 1.4% in October from the previous month, the largest drop in nine months.

The weak data fuelled concerns that Canada’s October growth figures, due out on Friday, would be below forecasts.

Safe haven demand was also supported by concerns over the U.S. fiscal cliff, approximately USD600 billion of automatic tax hikes and spending cuts due to take effect on January 1 which investors’ fears could derail the U.S. recovery, if lawmakers cannot reach an agreement.

But the greenback remained under pressure after weak U.S. inflation data on Friday warranted continued monetary easing by the Federal Reserve.

Official data showed that U.S. consumer inflation fell 0.3% in November, down for the first time in six months on the back of lower gasoline prices, bringing the annualized rate of inflation to 1.8%.

The Federal Reserve said Wednesday that interest rates would remain close to zero as long as inflation forecasts remain near the bank’s 2% target and until the U.S. unemployment rate declines to 6.5% or less.

The U.S. central bank also said it would continue to purchase USD85 billion a month of government bonds and mortgage based securities in order to shore up the economic recovery.

In the week ahead, investors will be continuing to monitor the progress on talks in Washington on the fiscal cliff. Market participants will also be awaiting Canadian data on retail sales, inflation and economic growth.

Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets.

Monday, December 17

Canada is to publish a government report on foreign investment in Canadian securities, which is directly linked to currency demand.

The U.S. is to publish official data on manufacturing activity in New York State, a leading indicator of economic health, as well as a report on the balance of domestic and foreign investment in U.S. securities.

Tuesday, December 18

The U.S. is to produce government data on the current account.

Wednesday, December 19

Canada is to produce official data on wholesale sales, a leading indicator of consumer spending.

The U.S. is to publish government data on building permits, an excellent gauge of future construction activity, as well as data on housing starts. The country is also to release official data on crude oil stockpiles.

Thursday, December 20

Canada is to publish government data on retail sales, the leading indicator of consumer spending, which accounts for the majority of overall economic activity.

The U.S. is to release the weekly report on initial jobless claims, as well as revised data on third quarter growth and a report on manufacturing activity in Philadelphia. In addition, the U.S. is to publish industry data on existing home sales, a leading indicator of economic health.

Friday, December 21

Canada is to release official data on consumer price inflation, which accounts for a majority of overall inflation, as well as monthly data on gross domestic product.

The U.S. is to round up the week with revised data on consumer sentiment from the University of Michigan, as well as government data on personal income and spending.



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