Cyber Monday Deal: Up to 60% off InvestingProCLAIM SALE

Forex - USD/CAD weekly outlook: August 13 - 17

Published 08/12/2012, 09:06 AM
USD/CAD
-
Investing.com - The U.S. dollar ended the week sharply lower against its Canadian counterpart on Friday, but the greenback found some support amid renewed fears of a global economic slowdown and as expectations for fresh easing by the European Central Bank faded.

USD/CAD hit 0.9904 on Friday, the pair’s lowest since May 4; the pair subsequently consolidated at 0.9907 by close of trade on Friday, tumbling 1.05% over the week.

The pair is likely to find support at 0.9860, the low of May 4 and resistance at 0.9988, the high of August 8.  

The commodity-linked loonie strengthened last week, as light sweet crude futures for delivery in September settled at USD93.35 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange by close of trade on Friday, jumping 2.2% over the week.

Raw materials, including oil account for about half of Canada’s export revenue.

But the safe haven greenback remained supported on Friday, after data showed that Chinese exports grew just 1.0% on the year in July, down from the 11.3% gain seen in June, while imports rose 4.7% year-over-year, down from 6.3% in June.

Adding to global growth concerns, the European Central Bank said in its monthly bulletin on Thursday that the economic outlook for the euro zone faced a number of downside risks, with financial market tensions and their potential impact on growth posing the key threats.

The ECB revised down its forecast for economic growth to 0.6% in 2013, down from 1% previously and forecast a 0.3% contraction in growth this year, slightly worse than its previous forecast of for a 0.2% contraction.

Meanwhile, optimism that the ECB will soon move to cut high Spanish and Italian borrowing costs faded as investors waited for more details of the bank’s proposed bond buying program to emerge.

The greenback also found support after robust employment and trade data eased concerns over the U.S. economic outlook.

The Department of Labor said that the number of people who filed for unemployment assistance in the U.S. declined to 361,000 last week, from an upwardly revised 367,000 in the previous week, against expectations for an increase to 370,000.

A separate report showed that the U.S. trade deficit dropped to USD42.9 billion in June, its lowest level in two-and-a-half years.

In Canada, official data showed on Friday that the economy 30,400 jobs in July, disappointing expectations for a 9,600 rise and following a 7,300 increase the previous month.

Canada’s unemployment rate rose unexpectedly to 7.3% in July from 7.2% the previous month. Analysts had expected the unemployment rate to remain unchanged in July.

In the week ahead, market participants will be awaiting data on second quarter growth from the euro zone and looking ahead to central bank minutes from the Bank of Japan and the Bank of England, amid ongoing speculation that world central banks may take steps to shore up economic growth.

Investors will also watching U.S. data on retail sales, inflation and housing in an attempt to assess the strength of the U.S. economic recovery.

Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets. The guide skips Monday, as there are no relevant events on that day.

Tuesday, August 14

The U.S. is to publish official data on retail sales and producer price inflation, followed by data on business inventories.

Wednesday, August 15

The U.S. is to release official data on consumer price inflation, as well as a report on manufacturing activity in the New York area and government data on net long term securities transactions. The Federal Reserve is also to produce data on the capacity utilization rate and industrial production, followed by a government report on crude oil inventories.

Thursday, August 16

Canada is to produce official data on foreign securities purchases and on manufacturing sales, a key indicator of economic health.

The U.S. is to publish official data on building permits, a key gauge of future construction activity, as well as weekly government data on unemployment claims. The country is also to release official data on housing starts and a report on manufacturing activity in the Philadelphia area.  

Friday, August 17

Canada is to release official data on consumer price inflation.

The U.S. is to round up the week with a preliminary report by the University of Michigan on consumer sentiment and inflation expectations.


Latest comments

Risk Disclosure: Trading in financial instruments and/or cryptocurrencies involves high risks including the risk of losing some, or all, of your investment amount, and may not be suitable for all investors. Prices of cryptocurrencies are extremely volatile and may be affected by external factors such as financial, regulatory or political events. Trading on margin increases the financial risks.
Before deciding to trade in financial instrument or cryptocurrencies you should be fully informed of the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite, and seek professional advice where needed.
Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. The data and prices on the website are not necessarily provided by any market or exchange, but may be provided by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual price at any given market, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Fusion Media and any provider of the data contained in this website will not accept liability for any loss or damage as a result of your trading, or your reliance on the information contained within this website.
It is prohibited to use, store, reproduce, display, modify, transmit or distribute the data contained in this website without the explicit prior written permission of Fusion Media and/or the data provider. All intellectual property rights are reserved by the providers and/or the exchange providing the data contained in this website.
Fusion Media may be compensated by the advertisers that appear on the website, based on your interaction with the advertisements or advertisers.
© 2007-2024 - Fusion Media Limited. All Rights Reserved.