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Forex - USD/CAD weekly outlook: April 8 - 12

Published 04/07/2013, 07:29 AM
USD/CAD
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Investing.com - The Canadian dollar fell to a two-week low against the U.S. dollar on Friday as weak Canadian employment and trade data added to concerns over the outlook for growth, while weaker-than-forecast U.S. jobs data also weighed.

USD/CAD hit session highs of 1.0235, the pair’s highest since March 22, before settling at 1.0173, 0.43% higher for the day, but up just 0.06% for the week.

The pair is likely to find support at 1.0103, Thursday’s low and resistance at 1.0263, the high of March 22.

Statistics Canada said the economy shed 54,400 jobs in March, compared to expectations for a gain of 9,000. The country’s unemployment rate unexpectedly rose to 7.2% from 7.0% in February.

Weaker trade numbers also weighed on the Canadian dollar after a separate Statistics Canada report showed that the trade deficit unexpectedly widened in February as metal exports declined.

Canada’s trade deficit widened to CAD1.0 billion from an upwardly revised deficit of CAD746 million in January. Economists had expected the deficit to contract to CAD200 million in February.

In the U.S., Friday’s weaker-than-forecast U.S. nonfarm payrolls report for March fuelled fears that the recovery in the labor market is losing momentum.

The Department of Labor said the U.S. economy added 88,000 jobs last month, the smallest increase since last June and far below forecasts for an increase of 200,000. The U.S. unemployment rate ticked down to 7.6% from 7.7% in February.

In the week ahead, investors will be awaiting Wednesday’s minutes of the Federal Reserve’s March policy meeting, amid speculation over when the central bank may begin to wind down its asset purchase program.

Market participants will also be watching U.S. data on retail sales and consumer sentiment on Friday in an attempt to gauge the strength of the U.S. economic recovery.

Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets.

Monday, April 8

The Bank of Canada is to publish its quarterly business outlook survey.

Tuesday, April 9

Canada is to release government data on building permits, the leading indicator of future construction activity.

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke is to speak; his comments will be closely watched for indications of the future possible direction of monetary policy.

Wednesday, April 10

The Federal Reserve is to publish the minutes of its most recent policy meeting. The minutes give investors important insights into economic conditions from the bank’s perspective.

The U.S. is also to release government data on the federal budget balance.

Thursday, April 11

Canada is to produce official data on new house price inflation, a leading indicator of demand in the housing market.

The U.S. is to publish the weekly government report on initial jobless claims and official data on import prices.

Friday, April 12

The U.S. is to round up the week with official data on retail sale, producer price inflation and business inventories, as well as preliminary data from the University of Michigan on consumer sentiment.

Also Friday, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke is to speak; his comments will be closely watched for indications of the future possible direction of monetary policy.



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