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Forex - NZD/USD weekly outlook: September 30 - October 4

Published 09/29/2013, 10:10 AM
NZD/USD
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Investing.com - The New Zealand dollar ended Friday’s session lower against its U.S. counterpart, amid concerns surrounding U.S. budget discussions and ongoing uncertainty over the Federal Reserve's stimulus program.

NZD/USD hit 0.8249 on Friday, the daily low; the pair subsequently consolidated at 0.8282 by close of trade on Friday, down 0.12% for the day and 0.95% lower for the week.

The pair is likely to find support at 0.8217, the low from September 25 and resistance at 0.8360, the high from September 24.

Market sentiment was hit by concerns that political wrangling in Washington could lead to a government shutdown and create a drag on fourth quarter economic growth.

Congress must pass a short-term budget by midnight on Monday in order to avoid a government shutdown.

Republican opposition to the funding of the Affordable Care Act has created a standoff with the White House and the Democratic-controlled Senate, which have both said they will not support any budget bill that defunds or amends Obamacare.

Later this month, Congress will have to extend the U.S. debt ceiling which the U.S. Treasury Department has estimated will be reached by October 17.

Meanwhile, market players continued to watch speeches from Federal Reserve officials for clues on monetary policy.

Speaking on Friday, Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President Charles Evans said that there is a chance the central bank will not move to taper its bond-buying program until early 2014.

His comments came after three top Fed officials said on Thursday the central bank had confused markets over its policy outlook.

Mixed U.S. economic data on Friday further added to uncertainty about how quickly the Fed will scale back its USD85-billion-a-month bond-buying program.

The Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan consumer sentiment index fell to a four-month low of 77.5 in September from 82.1 the previous month.

Separately, official data showed that U.S. personal spending rose 0.3% in August, in line with expectations, after an upwardly revised 0.2% increase the previous month.

In the week ahead, investors will be focusing on Friday’s U.S. nonfarm payrolls report, for indications on whether the economic recovery is sufficiently strong for the Federal Reserve to start rolling back its USD85-billion-a-month bond-buying program.

Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets.

Monday, September 30

New Zealand is to release data on building consents, an excellent indicator of future construction activity, as well as a report on business confidence.

Meanwhile, China is to publish the final reading of the closely watched HSBC manufacturing PMI. The Asian nation is New Zealand’s second-largest trade partner.

Later in the day, the U.S. is to release a report on manufacturing activity in Chicago.

Tuesday, October 1

Beijing is to release data on manufacturing activity, a leading indicator of economic health.

In the U.S., the Institute of Supply Management is to produce a report on manufacturing activity, a leading economic indicator.

Wednesday, October 2

The U.S. is to release the ADP report on nonfarm payrolls, which leads the closely watched government report by two days.

Thursday, October 3

The U.S. is to release the weekly government report on initial jobless claims along with data on factory orders. Meanwhile, the ISM is to produce a report on non-manufacturing activity, a leading economic indicator.

Friday, October 4

The U.S. is to round up the week with the closely watched government report on nonfarm payrolls, the unemployment rate and average hourly earnings.

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