Forex - NZD/USD weekly outlook: September 10 - 14

Published 09/09/2012, 07:25 AM
Investing.com - The New Zealand dollar surged to a two-week high against its U.S. counterpart on Friday, boosted by expectations for fresh easing measures by the Federal Reserve following the release of disappointing U.S. employment data.

NZD/USD hit 0.8124 on Friday, the pair’s highest since August 24; the pair subsequently consolidated at 0.8123 by close of trade on Friday, rallying 1.48% over the week.

The pair is likely to find support at 0.8000, Friday’s low and resistance at 0.8185, the high of August 23.

The Department of Labor said on Friday that the U.S. economy added 96,000 jobs in August, well below expectations for 125,000, following a downwardly revised 141,000 in July.

The smaller-than-expected increase in job creation increased the chances that the U.S. central bank will implement further quantitative easing measures to strengthen the U.S. economic recovery, ahead of its upcoming policy meeting.

The U.S. report came a day after the European Central Bank announced details of its bond purchasing program aimed at stemming the debt crisis in the euro zone, dubbed Outright Monetary Transactions.

Speaking at the bank’s post-policy meeting press conference on Thursday, ECB President Mario Draghi said the plan would provide "a fully effective backstop" against market volatility.

Under the terms of the plan, the ECB would buy unlimited amounts of government bonds of up to three years in maturity, as long as the country in question is signed up to the OMT program and agrees to economic reforms in return for assistance.

The yield on Spanish 10-year bonds settled at 5.63% on Friday, falling below the 6% level for the first time since May, while the yield on Italian 10-year bonds fell to 5.05% by the close on Friday.

In the coming week, investors will be focusing on the outcome of the Fed’s policy meeting on Thursday, amid ongoing speculation over how close policymakers are to implementing more stimulus measures.

Market participants will also be eyeing Wednesday’s German court ruling on the constitutionality of the European Stability Mechanism.

Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets. The guide skips Monday, as there are no relevant events on this day.

Tuesday, September 11

New Zealand is to produce industry data on house price inflation, an important signal of the housing industry’s health.

Later in the day, the U.S. is to produce a report on trade balance, the difference in value between imported and exported goods and services.

Wednesday, September 12

The U.S. is to release official data on import prices, followed by a government report on crude oil stockpiles.

Thursday, September 13

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand is to announce its benchmark interest rate; the announcement is to be accompanied by the bank’s rate statement, which contains insights into current economic conditions from the bank’s perspective.

The U.S. is to publish government data on producer price inflation, as well as a weekly report on initial jobless claims.

The Federal Reserve is to announce its benchmark interest rate; the announcement is to be accompanied by the bank’s rate statement, which contains insights into current economic conditions from the bank’s perspective.

Friday, September 14

The U.S. is to round up the week with official reports on consumer price inflation, retail sales and business inventories. The Federal Reserve is also to release data on the capacity utilization rate and industrial production, while the University of Michigan is to produce preliminary reports on consumer sentiment and inflation expectations.


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