Forex - NZD/USD Weekly outlook: October 31-November 4

Published 10/30/2011, 09:08 AM
NZD/USD
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Investing.com – The New Zealand dollar ended the week sharply higher against its U.S. counterpart as fresh measures to counter the effects of the debt crisis in the euro zone boosted demand for riskier assets.

NZD/USD hit 0.8240 on Friday, the pair's highest since September 21; the pair subsequently consolidated at 0.8206 by close of trade on Friday, soaring 2.34% over the week.

The pair is likely to find support at 0.8073, the low of August 11 and resistance at 0.8340, the high of September 16.

The kiwi rallied over 2% on Thursday, as investor confidence strengthened after European leaders reached an agreement with banks to take a 'voluntary' 50% loss on the face value of their Greek debt, curbing risks of a potential Greek default.

Leaders also agreed to expand the firepower of the euro zone's bailout fund, the European Financial Stability Facility, to EUR1 trillion.

Risk appetite was also boosted after preliminary data showed that gross domestic product in the U.S. rose more-than-expected in the third quarter, expanding at the fastest rate since the third quarter of 2010.

The reading nearly doubled growth of 1.3% recorded in the preceding quarter. Analysts had expected U.S. gross domestic product to rise 2.4% in the third quarter.

Earlier Thursday, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand left its interest rate unchanged at 2.50%, saying that recovery needs more stimulus to recover strongly before the end of the year.

The kiwi trimmed the week's gains on Friday after ratings agency Fitch said that writedowns on Greek debt would indicate a default and after Italy’s borrowing costs rose to a euro lifetime high, following an auction of government debt.

In the week ahead, investors will be focusing on the Federal Reserve’s policy meeting on Wednesday and Friday’s U.S. nonfarm payrolls data. In New Zealand, official reports are to be released on building consents and employment change.

Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets.

Monday, October 31

New Zealand is to publish official data on building consents, a leading indicator of future construction activity. Later in the day, the country is also to produce government data on labor costs, a leading indicator of consumer inflation.

Later Monday, the U.S is to produce a report on manufacturing activity in the Chicago area, an important indicator of economic health.

Tuesday, November 1

The Institute of Supply Management is to produce a report on U.S. manufacturing activity, a leading indicator of economic health.

Wednesday, November 2

New Zealand is to produce official data on employment change and the unemployment rate, a leading indicator of economic health.

Later Wednesday, the U.S. is to release private sector data on non-farm payrolls that leads government data by two days as well as a government report on crude oil stockpiles. In addition, the Federal Reserve is to announce its benchmark interest rate. The bank’s post-policy meeting press conference will be closely watched for indications to the future possible direction of monetary policy.

Thursday, November 3

Leaders from the G-20 group of industrialized nations are to hold talks to discuss a range of global economic topics, including the financial crisis in the euro zone, in Cannes.

The U.S. is to produce its weekly report on initial jobless claims as well as government data on factory orders. The U.S. is also to publish preliminary data on nonfarm productivity and labor costs, important inflationary indicators. In addition the ISM is to release a report on service sector activity, a leading indicator of economic health.

Friday, November 4

The U.S. is to round up the week with its closely watched government report on nonfarm payrolls, in addition to official data on the unemployment rate and average hourly earnings.

Meanwhile, G-20 leaders are to meet for a second day in Cannes.

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