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Forex - NZD/USD weekly outlook: October 21 - 25

Published 10/20/2013, 08:31 AM
NZD/USD
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Investing.com - The New Zealand dollar ended Friday’s session close to a five-month high against its U.S. counterpart, following the release of upbeat Chinese economic data and as investors worried that the impact of the U.S. government shutdown on economic growth could compel the Federal Reserve to hold its stimulus program in place for longer.

NZD/USD hit 0.8525 on Thursday, the pair’s highest since May 6; the pair subsequently consolidated at 0.8507 by close of trade on Friday, up 0.25% for the day and 2.17% higher for the week.

The pair is likely to find support at 0.8415, the low from October 17 and resistance at 0.8555, the high from May 6.

The kiwi was boosted on Friday after official data showed that China’s economy expanded at an annual rate of 7.8% in the third quarter, in line with expectations and up from 7.5% in the three months to June.

A separate report showed that industrial production in China rose by an annualized rate of 10.2% in September, exceeding expectations for a 10.1% increase, after a 10.4% rise the previous month.

China is the world’s second-largest economy and New Zealand’s biggest export market.

Meanwhile, in the U.S., Congress passed a bill to reopen the government and raise the debt ceiling on Thursday, with just hours to spare ahead of a deadline to avert an unprecedented sovereign debt default.

The deal will fund the government until January 15 and raise the government borrowing limit until February 7, but the possibility of another debt crisis down the road lingered, as the temporary solution does not resolve the underlying budgetary issues dividing Republicans and Democrats.

Market participants speculated that the impact of the government shutdown on the already fragile U.S. economic recovery would prompt the Fed to the delay plans for scaling back its stimulus program until at least the start of next year.

Elsewhere, in New Zealand, official data released earlier in the week showed that consumer price inflation rose 0.9% in the third quarter, exceeding expectations for a 0.8% increase, after a 0.2% uptick in the three months to June.

In the week ahead, U.S. data releases will be in focus after the shutdown delayed the release of some key economic reports.

The Department of Labor is to publish the September nonfarm payrolls report on Tuesday and data on durable goods orders is to be published on Friday.

Market players have closely been looking out for U.S. data reports recently to gauge if they will strengthen or weaken the case for the Fed to reduce its bond purchases.

The central bank is scheduled to meet October 29-30 to review the economy and assess policy.

Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets.

Monday, October 21

The U.S. is to release private sector data on existing home sales, a leading indicator of demand in the housing sector.

Tuesday, October 22

The U.S. is to publish the September nonfarm payrolls report, which had been originally scheduled for release on October 4.

Wednesday, October 23

The U.S. is to publish data on import prices, a leading contributor to inflation.

Thursday, October 24

New Zealand is to publish a report on the trade balance.

China is to release the preliminary reading of the HSBC manufacturing index.

The U.S. is to release the weekly report on initial jobless claims, as well as data on new home sales.

Friday, October 25

The U.S. is to round up the week with data on durable goods orders, a leading indicator of production, as well as revised data on consumer sentiment from the University of Michigan.

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