Forex - NZD/USD weekly outlook: October 15 - 19

Published 10/14/2012, 10:22 AM
NZD/USD
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Investing.com - The New Zealand dollar ended the week little changed against the U.S. dollar on Friday, as uncertainty over Spain’s’ position on requesting a formal bailout and concerns over the outlook for the global economy weighed on market sentiment.

NZD/USD hit 0.8144 on Wednesday, the pair’s lowest since September 11; the pair subsequently consolidated at 0.8169 at close of trade on Friday, 0.06% lower for the week.

The pair is likely to find near-term support at 0.8144, Wednesday’s low and resistance at 0.8208, Friday’s high.

Market sentiment was dominated by speculation over whether Spain was moving closer to requesting fiscal aid from its euro zone partners following a downgrade by ratings agency Standard & Poor’s.

A bailout request by Madrid would trigger the European Central Bank’s bond purchasing program, aimed at lowering borrowing costs for struggling euro zone states.

The greenback was almost unchanged after data on Friday showed that U.S. consumer sentiment rose to its highest level in five years in October, while a separate report showed that producer price inflation rose more-than-forecast in September.

The University of Michigan said that its consumer sentiment index rose to a seasonally adjusted 83.1 from 78.3 in September, the highest level since September 2007.

The data came one day after the U.S. Department of Labor said the number of individuals filing for initial jobless benefits fell by 30,000 to a seasonally adjusted 339,000 in the previous week, compared to expectations for an increase of 1,000.

However, as the figures were released a spokesman for the Labor Department said one large state had not reported additional quarterly figures, accounting for a significant part of the steep decline in claims.

Sentiment on the kiwi remained fragile on Friday, as investors anticipated a string of upcoming Chinese economic data, amid worries over the outlook for growth in Asia.

The International Monetary Fund has forecast Asian economic growth of 5.9% in 2013, but last week said it sees a one in seven chance of it being less than 4%.

On Tuesday, China moved to inject liquidity into markets, fuelling speculation that Beijing may announce more stimulus measures. China is the world’s second largest economy and New Zealand’s second biggest export destination.

In the week ahead, markets will continue to continue to focus on whether Spain will formally request a bailout and if international creditors will extend loans to Greece as the country struggles to meet deficit reduction targets.

Meanwhile, the U.S. is to release a flurry of data, including reports on retail sales, manufacturing activity in New York and Philadelphia, initial jobless claims and housing starts, among others.
 
Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets.

Monday, October 15

New Zealand is to publish official data on consumer price inflation, which accounts for the majority of overall inflation.

The U.S. is to produce official data on retail sales, the primary indicator of consumer spending, which accounts for the majority of economic activity. In addition, the U.S. is to release data on manufacturing activity in New York state, as well as official data on business inventories.

Tuesday, October 16

The U.S. is to release government data on consumer price inflation and industrial production. The U.S. is also to produce official data on treasury long-term purchases and the capacity utilization rate.

Wednesday, October 17

The U.S. is to publish government data on building permits, an excellent gauge of future construction activity, as well as data on housing starts, a leading indicator of economic health. The U.S. is also to produce official data on crude oil stockpiles.

Thursday, October 18

The U.S. is to publish weekly government data on initial jobless claims, as well as a report on manufacturing activity in Philadelphia, a leading indicator of economic strength.

Friday, October 19

The U.S. is to round up the week with industry data on existing home sales, a leading indicator of economic health.



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