Forex - NZD/USD weekly outlook: November 4 - 9

Published 11/04/2012, 10:00 AM
NZD/USD
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Investing.com - The New Zealand dollar came off a one-month high against the U.S. dollar on Friday, after official data showed that the U.S. economy added more jobs than forecast last month, while uncertainty ahead of upcoming U.S. presidential elections also weighed.

NZD/USD hit 0.8287 on Friday, the pair’s highest since October 2; the pair subsequently consolidated at 0.8248 by close of trade, 0.26% higher for the week.

The pair is likely to find support at 0.8181, the low of October 29 and resistance at 0.8287, Friday’s high.

The U.S. Department of Labor said the economy added 171,000 jobs in October, beating forecasts for an increase of 125,000. The unemployment rate ticked up to 7.9% from 7.8% in September as more people re-entered the labor force.

The stronger-than-expected data saw investor’s trim back expectations for another round of quantitative easing by the Federal Reserve, bolstering demand for the greenback.

Demand for the greenback continued to be underpinned by uncertainty over the outcome of Tuesday’s U.S. presidential elections, with opinion polls indicating a dead heat between President Barack Obama and Republican challenger Mitt Romney.

Investors are concerned over the U.S. fiscal cliff, approximately USD600 billion in tax hikes and spending cuts due to come into effect on January 1, which could threaten U.S. and global growth.

Market sentiment was also hit by ongoing uncertainty over when Spain may request a bailout and whether Greece can implement austerity measures in order to secure the next tranche of its bailout funding.

The kiwi had been boosted earlier in the session after encouraging manufacturing data out of China eased concerns over an economic slowdown. China is New Zealand’s second- largest trading partner.

On Thursday, official data showed that China’s manufacturing purchasing managers’ index came in at 50.2 in October, up from 49.8 in September, just slightly below forecasts for a reading of 50.3.

A separate report showed that the final reading of China’s HSBC PMI came in at 49.5 in September, an eight month high.

In the coming week, investors will be anticipating the outcome of Tuesday’s U.S. presidential elections and looking ahead to policy meetings by the Bank of England and the European Central Bank on Thursday.

In addition, market participants will be awaiting any further developments in the handling of the debt crisis in the euro zone.

Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets.

Monday, November 4

In the U.S., the Institute of Supply Management is to publish data on service sector activity.

Tuesday, November 6

In the U.S, voting in the U.S. presidential elections is to take place.

Wednesday, November 7

The U.S. is to publish government data on crude oil stockpiles.
Later Wednesday, New Zealand is to publish official data on employment change and the unemployment rate, a leading indicator of economic strength.

Thursday, November 8

The U.S. is to publish official data on the trade balance, the difference in value between imports and exports, as well as the weekly government report on initial jobless claims.

Friday, November 9

China is to publish a flurry of economic data, with reports on producer price inflation, retail sales and industrial production.

The U.S. is to round up the week with preliminary data from the University of Michigan on consumer sentiment, a leading indicator of economic health.



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