Forex - NZD/USD weekly outlook: November 15-19

Published 11/14/2010, 09:30 AM
NZD/USD
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Investing.com – Last week saw New Zealand’s dollar close sharply lower against its U.S. counterpart, posting the biggest weekly decline since August as the risk rally which started when investors began preparing for more asset-buying by the Federal Reserve fizzled out.

NZD/USD hit 0.7697 on Friday, the pair’s lowest since November 2; the pair subsequently consolidated at 0.7730 by close of trade, tumbling 2.59% over the week.

The pair is likely to find support at 0.7633, the low of November 2 and resistance at 0.7872, last Thursday’s high.

Renewed concerns about Europe's fiscal strength, this time with Ireland in focus, saw Irish government bond yields soar to record highs amid concerns that the country would struggle to repay its bondholders.

The grim prospect for New Zealand's NZ1 billion kiwifruit industry was also not helping, after Biosecurity Minister David Carter said it was looking increasingly likely that the outbreak of a bacterial disease could not be eradicated.

In the week ahead, the U.S. is to release a raft of data with reports on retail sales, inflation, manufacturing, foreign investment and building permits. The country is also to release key weekly data on initial jobless claims and the chairman of the Federal Reserve is to speak at a public engagement.

Meanwhile, New Zealand is to publish data on retail sales, credit card spending and inflation.

Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets.

Monday, November 15

New Zealand is to begin the week with official data on retail sales, the primary gauge of consumer spending, which accounts for the majority of overall economic activity.

Also Monday, the U.S. is to publish key monthly data on retail sales, a leading indicator of consumer spending which accounts for about 70% of all economic activity. In addition, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York is to publish its monthly manufacturing index, a leading indicator of economic health. The country is also to publish data on business inventories.

Tuesday, November 16

The U.S. is to publish key data on producer prices, a leading indicator of consumer inflation, as well as government data on the difference in value between foreign long-term securities purchased by U.S. citizens and U.S. long-term securities purchased by foreigners. The country is also to release official data on industrial production, a leading indicator of economic health as well as data on the capacity utilization rate.

Wednesday, November 17

The U.S. is to publish official data on consumer price inflation, which accounts for the majority of overall inflation. The country is also to release official data on building permits and housing starts, both leading indicators of health in the housing sector as well as a report on crude oil inventories.

In addition, New Zealand is to publish official data on producer price inflation, a leading indicator of consumer inflation.

Thursday, November 18

The U.S. is to release key weekly data on initial jobless claims, while the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia is due to release a report on the city’s manufacturing sector. The country is also due to publish an index of leading economic indicators, designed to predict the future direction of the economy, as well as a report on natural gas inventories.

Friday, November 19

The chairman of the Federal Reserve Ben Bernanke is to speak at a conference in Frankfurt, his comments will be closely watched for any clues to the future direction of monetary policy.

Also Friday, New Zealand is to publish official data on credit card spending, an important indicator of consumer confidence.

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