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Forex - NZD/USD weekly outlook: March 9 - 13

Published 03/08/2015, 10:55 AM
NZD/USD ends the week down 2.67% on U.S. rate hike outlook
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Investing.com - The New Zealand dollar fell more than 1% against its U.S. counterpart on Friday, as stronger than forecast U.S. nonfarm payrolls data bolstered bets that the Federal Reserve will begin to raise rates sooner rather than later.

NZD/USD hit 0.7358 on Friday, the pair's lowest since February 12, before subsequently consolidating at 0.7362 by close of trade on Friday, down 1.62% for the day and 2.67% lower for the week.

The Labor Department reported that the U.S. economy added 295,000 jobs in February, far more than the 240,000 forecast by economists. The unemployment rate ticked down to 5.5% from 5.7% in January, the lowest since May 2008. Economists had forecast the unemployment rate would fall to 5.6%.

The robust jobs report fuelled expectations that the Federal Reserve will start raising interest rates as early as June, boosting the greenback.

The dollar index, which measures the greenback’s strength against a trade-weighted basket of six major currencies, jumped 1.39% to 97.74 late Friday, the highest since September 2003.

Elsewhere, the euro was weaker against the kiwi after European Central Bank President Mario Draghi confirmed that it will begin purchasing euro zone government bonds on Monday under its new quantitative easing program.

The combined monthly asset purchases will amount to €60 billion per month and are expected to run until September 2016.

In the week ahead, markets will be watching talks on Greece by euro zone finance ministers in Brussels on Monday, while Thursday’s U.S. retail sales report will also be closely watched for further indications on the strength of the recovery.

The outcome of a policy meeting of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand on Wednesday will also be in focus.

Chinese government data on consumer price inflation and industrial production will also be eyed.

On Sunday, China reported a trade surplus of $60.6 billion in the January-February period, compared to expectations for a surplus of $10.8 billion and up from a surplus of $60.0 in January.

Exports surged 48.3% from a year earlier last month, above expectations for a 14.2% increase, while imports tumbled 20.5%, much worse than forecasts for a decline of 10.0%.

The Asian nation is New Zealand's second largest trade partner.

Investing.com has compiled a list of significant events likely to affect the markets in the week ahead.

Monday, March 9

Eurogroup finance ministers are to hold a meeting in Brussels to discuss funding options for Greece.

Tuesday, March 10

China is to release reports on consumer and producer price inflation.

Wednesday, March 11

China is to publish reports on industrial production and fixed asset investment.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand is to announce its benchmark interest rate and publish its rate statement, which outlines economic conditions and the factors affecting the monetary policy decision.

Thursday, March 12

The U.S. is to produce data on retail sales and initial jobless claims.

Friday, March 13

The U.S. is to round up the week with data on producer prices and consumer sentiment.

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