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Forex - NZD/USD weekly outlook: March 7-11

Published 03/06/2011, 07:29 AM
NZD/USD
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Investing.com – Last week the New Zealand dollar fell to a five-month low against its U.S. counterpart, amid expectations that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand will cut interest rates at its next meeting, to help the economy recover following two earthquakes in six months.

NZD/USD hit 0.7337 on Friday, the pair’s lowest since October 1; the pair subsequently consolidated at 0.7380 by close of trade, tumbling 2.27% over the week.

The pair was likely to find support at 0.7337, Friday’s low and resistance at 0.7480, last Wednesday’s high.

On Wednesday, New Zealand’s Prime Minister John Key said that rate cuts by the RBNZ "would probably be our expectation."

"I don't think there is any question that it is helpful if there are lower interest rates to reflect what we are going through at the moment," he said.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand made no comment on the prime minister’s remarks.

The International Monetary Fund said on Thursday that it was “likely” to revise down its 3% 2011 growth forecast for New Zealand after the earthquakes.

The country’s Treasury has estimated of the total cost of both Canterbury earthquakes at NZD15 billion, a figure the government’s economic agency said was “best described as a working assumption, rounded to the nearest NZD5 billion.”

In the week ahead, the U.S. is to release official data on retail sales for February as well as the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment preliminary reading for March. Meanwhile, the RBNZ is to announce its official cash rate.

Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets.

Monday, March 7


The U.S. is to begin the week with official data on consumer credit, which is closely correlated with consumer confidence while New Zealand is to publish government data on the number of building approvals issued, a leading indicator of future construction activity.

Tuesday, March 8


The U.S. is to publish a report on economic optimism.

Wednesday, March 9


The RBNZ is to announce its official cash rate. The rate statement will be followed up by a closely watched press conference to discuss the interest rate decision. Also Wednesday, the U.S. is to publish a government report on crude oil stockpiles.

Thursday, March 10


The U.S. is to publish a key weekly report on initial jobless claims, the nation’s earliest employment data. The country is also to publish a report on the trade balance, the difference in value between imported and exported goods and services over the month.

Elsewhere, New Zealand is to publish official data on food price inflation.

Friday, March 11

The U.S. is to round up the week with government data on retail sales, the primary gauge of consumer spending, which accounts for the majority of overall economic activity. The nation is also to publish a report on business inventories, while the University of Michigan is to produce preliminary data on consumer sentiment and inflation expectations.

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