Forex - NZD/USD weekly outlook: March 12-16

Published 03/11/2012, 08:28 AM
NZD/USD
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Investing.com - The New Zealand ended the week lower against its U.S. counterpart on Friday, after expectations for fresh easing measures by the Federal Reserve were dampened by positive U.S. employment data.

NZD/USD hit 0.8099 on Tuesday, the pair’s lowest since January 25; the pair subsequently consolidated at 0.8212, shedding 1.08% over the week.

The pair is likely to find support at 0.8099, Tuesday’s low and resistance at 0.8306, the high of March 5.

The Department of Labor said on Friday that the U.S. economy added 227,000 jobs in February after increasing by a revised 284,000 the previous month. The unemployment rate held steady at a three year low of 8.3%.

The strong data boosted the dollar as it diminished expectations for a fresh round of asset purchases by the Federal Reserve to help stimulate economic growth.

A separate report showed that the U.S. trade deficit widened unexpectedly in January, falling to USD52.6 billion from a deficit of USD50.4 billion the previous month.

Analysts had expected the trade deficit to narrow to USD48.9 billion in January.

Earlier Friday, Greece announced that more than 85% of its private creditors had signed up to a debt swap deal, aimed at restructuring 53.5% of the country’s debt. The deal cleared the way for Athens to secure a second bailout worth EUR130 billion and avert a default.

But sentiment was hit after the International Swaps and Derivatives Association said the debt swap constituted a “credit event” that would activate credit-default swaps, which designed to protect investors against losses on Greek sovereign debt.

The risk-related kiwi was also weighed by concerns over the economic outlook for the region after the European Central Bank revised down its forecast for growth in 2012 to a range of between minus 0.5% and 0.3% following Thursday’s policy meeting.

The central bank left its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 1% for the third consecutive month, in a widely expected decision.

Earlier in the week, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 2.50% for the eighth consecutive month in March, in line with market expectations.

Commenting on the decision, RBNZ Governor Alan Bollard said, “Sustained strength in the New Zealand dollar would reduce the need for further increases in the cash rate” and added that inflation has settled near the middle of the central bank’s target range.

In the week ahead, investors will be watching Tuesday’s U.S. data on retail sales in order to gage the strength of consumer spending as well as the Federal Reserve’s interest rate statement, also Tuesday.

Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets.

Monday, March 12

The U.S. is to publish government data on the federal budget balance.

Tuesday, March 13

New Zealand is to publish industry data on house price inflation, a key indicator of the housing industry’s health.

The U.S. is to release government data on retail sales, the foremost indicator of consumer spending, which accounts for the majority of overall economic activity. The country is also to produce official data on business inventories, a signal of future business spending.

Also Tuesday, the Federal Reserve is to announce its benchmark interest rate; the announcement will be accompanied by the central bank’s rate statement.

Wednesday, March 14

The U.S. is to produce official data on the country’s current account, as well as data on import prices and crude oil stockpiles. In addition, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke is also due to speak; his comments will be closely watched for clues to the future possible direction of monetary policy.

Thursday, March 15

The U.S. is to release government data on producer price inflation, a leading indicator of consumer inflation, as well as official data on unemployment claims. The country is also to produce reports on manufacturing activity in New York and Philadelphia, as well as a government report on net long-term securities transactions.

Friday, March 16

The U.S. is to round up the week with government data on consumer price inflation, followed by reports from the Federal Reserve on the capacity utilization rate and industrial production. In addition, the country is also to release preliminary reports by the University of Michigan on consumer sentiment and inflation expectations.


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