Forex - NZD/USD weekly outlook: July 23 - 27

Published 07/22/2012, 09:19 AM
NZD/USD
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EUR/NZD
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Investing.com - The New Zealand dollar turned lower against the U.S. dollar on Friday as market sentiment was hit by fresh fears over the worsening debt crisis in the euro zone, prompting investors to seek out the safety of the greenback.

NZD/USD hit 0.8053 on Thursday, the pair’s highest since July 5; the pair subsequently consolidated at 0.7993 on Friday, up 0.21% on the week.

The pair is likely to find support at 0.7923, Wednesday’s low and resistance at 0.8053, Thursday’s high and a two-week high.

The New Zealand dollar was down against its U.S. counterpart on Friday, amid concerns that Spain will need a full bailout, after the state of Valencia requested financial aid from Madrid. In addition, Spain’s government cut growth forecasts for 2013 and said the economy would stay in recession next year.

The news sent Spain’s borrowing costs soaring, with the yield on Spanish 10-year bonds rising to 7.26%, above the critical 7% threshold widely considered unsustainable in the long run.

The New Zealand dollar rose to a record high against the euro on Friday, with EUR/NZD down 0.54% to settle at 1.5190.

The U.S. dollar came under broad selling pressure earlier in the week as market participants focused on testimony by Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke amid speculation that weak economic data out of the U.S. would prompt a third round of quantitative easing by the U.S. central bank.

Bernanke said growth had lost momentum in the first half of the year and added that progress on cutting the U.S. unemployment rate was “frustratingly” slow.

The Federal Reserve chief stopped short of indicating whether a fresh round of stimulus was imminent, but reiterated that the central bank was prepared to take further action to support the economic recovery if necessary.

The growth linked New Zealand dollar was also boosted by robust corporate earnings and rising commodity prices, which lifted global equities markets.

In the week ahead, investors will be focusing on developments in Spain, while market participants will also be anticipating U.S. data on second quarter economic growth, in order to gauge the strength of the country’s recovery.

Meanwhile, New Zealand’s central bank is to announce its benchmark interest rate.

Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets. The guide skips Monday, as there are no relevant events on this day.

Tuesday, July 24

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke is to speak; his comments will be closely watched for clues to the possible future direction of monetary policy. The U.S. is also to release preliminary data on manufacturing activity, a leading indicator of economic health.

Wednesday, July 25

New Zealand is to publish official data on its trade balance, the difference in value between imported and exported goods and services.

Also Wednesday, the U.S. is to publish official data on new home sales, a leading indicator of economic health, as well as data on crude oil stockpiles.

Thursday, July 26

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand is to announce its benchmark interest rate. The announcement is to be accompanied by the bank’s rate statement, which outlines the reasons for the bank’s policy decision and discusses the economic outlook.

Later in the day, the U.S. is to release official data on durable goods orders, a leading indicator of production, as well as data on pending home sales and initial jobless claims.

Friday, July 27

The U.S. is to round up the week with advance data on second quarter GDP, the broadest measure of economic activity and the foremost indicator of the economy's health. In addition, the University of Michigan is to release revised data on consumer sentiment and inflation expectations.


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