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Forex - NZD/USD weekly outlook: January 29 - February 3

Published 01/29/2012, 07:20 AM
NZD/USD
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Investing.com - The New Zealand dollar rallied to a four-month high against its U.S. counterpart on Friday, extending the week’s gains as signs of progress on a debt swap deal between Greece and its creditors supported demand for riskier assets.

NZD/USD hit 0.8249 on Friday, the pair’s highest since September 20; the pair subsequently consolidated at 0.8245 by close of trade on Friday, climbing 2.14% over the week.

The pair is likely to find support at 0.8164, the low of October 28 and resistance at 0.8340, the high of September 16.

Greek Finance Minister Evangelos Venizelos said on Saturday that Athens was one step away from concluding a deal on the EUR100 billion debt write-down scheme.

An agreement is necessary for Greece to secure the next tranche of bailout funds in order to prevent a sovereign debt default. Greece does not have enough money to cover a EUR14.5 billion bond repayment due March 20.

Earlier Friday, official data showed that the New Zealand’s trade balance rose unexpectedly to a surplus of AUD338 million in December, from a deficit of AUD308 million the previous month.

Analysts had expected New Zealand’s trade deficit to narrow to AUD74 million in December.

Meanwhile, official data showed that the U.S. economy grew more slowly than expected in the fourth quarter of 2011.

The Commerce Department said U.S. gross domestic product expanded by 2.8% in the three months to December, the fastest quarterly rate in one-and-a-half years, but disappointing expectations for an increase of 3%.

The greenback came under broad selling pressure on Wednesday after Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke pushed back the timing of a possible interest rate increase until late 2014 and indicated that the bank may embark on a third round of quantitative easing.

Also Wednesday, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand left its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 2.50%, citing modest growth in the domestic economy.

The central bank added, however, that the global economy remains fragile and that risks to the outlook persist.

In the coming week, investors will be closely watching developments in Greece as well as the outcome of Monday’s European Union summit. Also Monday, Italy is to hold an auction of long term government bonds, in what will be an important test of demand for the country’s debt.

In addition, the U.S. is to publish data on service and manufacturing sector growth while Friday’s data on non-farm payrolls will be an important gauge of the recovery in the labor market.

Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets.

Monday, January 30

The U.S. is to publish government data on personal consumption expenditure, a leading indicator of inflation, followed by data on personal spending, which accounts for a majority of overall economic activity.

Tuesday, January 31

New Zealand is to publish official data on building consents, a leading gauge of future construction activity.

Later in the day, the U.S. is to produce government data on employment cost inflation, a key gauge of consumer inflation, followed by industry data on house price inflation and the purchasing managers’ index in Chicago. The country is also to release data on consumer confidence.

Wednesday, February 1

The U.S. is to release industry data on non-farm employment change, an important indicator of consumer spending. The country is also to produce a report by the Institute for Supply Management on manufacturing activity, followed by government data on crude oil stockpiles.

Thursday, February 2

New Zealand is to publish official data on employment change and on the country’s unemployment rate.

The U.S. is to produce government data on unemployment claims as well as preliminary data on nonfarm productivity and unit labor costs. Later in the day, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke is to testify on the economic outlook and federal budget situation before the house budget committee.

Friday, February 3

The U.S. is to round up the week with official reports on non-farm employment change and the country’s unemployment rate. The country is also to release official data on average hourly earnings and factory orders, as well as a report by the Institute for Supply Management on service sector activity.


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