Forex - NZD/USD weekly outlook: February 11 - 15

Published 02/10/2013, 09:47 AM
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EUR/NZD
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Investing.com - The New Zealand dollar regained strength against the U.S. dollar on Friday, bouncing off a seven-day low as appetite for riskier assets improved following the release of encouraging international trade data.

NZD/USD hit 0.8296 on Friday, the pair’s lowest since January 30; the pair subsequently consolidated at 0.8351 by close of trade, 1.08% lower for the week.

The pair is likely to find support at 0.8296, Thursday’s low and resistance at 0.8400, Thursday’s high.

The kiwi edged higher after official data showed that China’s trade surplus narrowed less-than-expected in January from December, as exports jumped 25% and imports climbed 28.8%.

The Asian nation’s trade surplus hit USD29.2 billion last month, down from a surplus of USD31.6 billion in December. Analysts were expecting a USD22 billion surplus.

Also Friday, official data showed that consumer prices in China rose 2% in January from a year earlier, in line with expectations and easing from a 2.5% rate of increase in December.

China is New Zealand's second biggest export partner.

Meanwhile, in the U.S., official data showed that the U.S. trade deficit narrowed to the smallest since January 2010 in December, fuelling hopes that figures for fourth quarter growth may be revised upwards.

The Commerce Department said trade deficit narrowed to USD38.5 billion from a USD48.6 billion deficit in November, compared to expectations for a deficit of USD46.0 billion.

In New Zealand, official data on Thursday showed that the number of employed people fell by 1% in the fourth quarter, confounding expectations for a 0.4% rise, following a 0.4% fall in the previous quarter.

The report also showed that New Zealand's unemployment rate fell more-than-expected in the last quarter, ticking down to 6.9% from 7.3%. Analysts had expected the unemployment rate to decline to 7.1% in the fourth quarter.

Elsewhere, the kiwi rose to a two-week high against the broadly weaker euro on Friday, with EUR/NZD hitting 1.5951 before settling back to 1.5992, 0.55% lower for the day.

The single currency came under pressure after European Central Bank President Mario Draghi said Thursday the central bank would closely monitor money-market conditions with an eye toward its impact on its monetary policy stance.

Draghi said the recent appreciation in the single currency reflected growing signs of a return of investor confidence in the euro zone and added that the exchange rate was not a policy target.

In the week ahead, traders will be anticipating U.S. data on retail sales and consumer sentiment, while New Zealand will also produce data on retail sales.

Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets. The guide skips Monday as there are no relevant events on this day.

Tuesday, February 12

The U.S. is to publish data on the federal budget balance.

Wednesday, February 13

The U.S. is to publish official data on retail sales, the government measure of consumer spending, which accounts for the majority of overall economic activity. The U.S. is also to publish data on import prices, business inventories and crude oil stockpiles.

Thursday, February 14

The U.S. is to release the weekly government report on initial jobless claims.

Later in the day, New Zealand is to publish official data on retail sales, the government measure of consumer spending, which accounts for the majority of overall economic activity.

Friday, February 15

The U.S. is to round up the week with data on manufacturing activity in New York state and industrial production, while the University of Michigan is to release preliminary data on consumer sentiment and inflation expectations.

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