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Forex - NZD/USD weekly outlook: December 9 - 13

Published 12/08/2013, 09:38 AM
NZD/USD
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Investing.com - The New Zealand dollar rallied to a two-week high against its U.S. counterpart on Friday, as growing optimism over the health of the global economy boosted demand for growth-linked currencies.

NZD/USD jumped to 0.8292 on Friday, the pair’s highest since November 20, before subsequently consolidating at 0.8284 by close of trade, up 0.78% for the day and 1.81% higher for the week.

The pair is likely to find support at 0.8138, Friday’s low and resistance at 0.8375, the high from November 20.

The U.S. economy added 203,000 jobs in November, above expectations for jobs growth of 180,000, the Labor Department said. The unemployment rate fell to a five-year low of 7.0% from 7.3% in October.

The report came one day after official data showed that the U.S. economy grew at an annual rate of 3.6% in the three months to September, well above the preliminary estimate for 2.6%.

The robust data raised the possibility that the Fed may start to scale back its USD85 billion-a-month asset purchase program as soon as its next monthly meeting on December 17 - 18.

In the week ahead, the U.S. is to release what will be closely watched data on retail sales, while a rate announcement by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand will also be in focus.

Market players will also look ahead to a raft of Chinese economic data later in the week, including reports on inflation, industrial production and retail sales.

Official data released on Sunday showed that China’s trade surplus widened unexpectedly in November as exports rose more-than-expected, easing concerns over global growth prospects.

China’s trade surplus widened to USD33.8 billion last month from a surplus of USD31.1 billion in October, compared to estimates for a surplus of USD21.7 billion.  

Chinese exports climbed 12.7% from a year earlier, beating expectations for a 7.1% increase and following a 5.6% gain in October. Imports rose 5.3%, missing forecasts for a 7.2% increase.

China is New Zealand’s second largest trade partner.

Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets.

Monday, December 9

China is to publish data on consumer price inflation, which accounts for the majority of overall inflation.

Tuesday, December 10

China is to release data on industrial production and fixed asset investment.

Wednesday, December 11

The RBNZ is to announce its benchmark interest rate and publish its rate statement, which outlines economic conditions and the factors affecting the bank’s decision. The announcement is to be followed by a press conference.

Thursday, December 12

RBNZ Governor Graeme Wheeler is to testify before the Finance and Expenditure Select Committee, in Wellington.

The U.S. is to produce data on retail sales, as well as the weekly report on initial jobless claims.

Friday, December 13

The U.S. is to round up the week with data on producer price inflation.

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