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Forex - NZD/USD weekly outlook: August 19 - 23

Published 08/18/2013, 08:45 AM
NZD/USD
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Investing.com - The New Zealand dollar ended Friday’s session at a nine-week high against its U.S. counterpart, after disappointing U.S. economic data dampened speculation the Federal Reserve will begin to taper its bond-buying program as soon as September.

NZD/USD hit 0.8128 on Friday, the pair’s highest since June 14; the pair subsequently consolidated at 0.8105 by close of trade on Friday, up 0.38% for the day and 0.82% higher for the week.

The pair is likely to find support at 0.7957, the low from August 14 and resistance at 0.8135, the high from June 14.

The University of Michigan said its consumer sentiment index fell from a six-year high of 85.1 in July to 80.0 in August. Economists had expected the index to tick up to 85.5.

Separate reports showed that U.S. housing starts rose less-than-expected in July and building permits also fell short of expectations last month.

The data came amid ongoing speculation over how soon the Federal Reserve will start to phase out its bond buying program.

Market players have closely been looking out for U.S. data reports recently to gauge if they will strengthen or weaken the case for the Fed to reduce its bond purchases.

Any improvement in the U.S. economy was likely to reinforce the view that the central bank will begin to taper its bond purchase program in the coming months.

Meanwhile, in New Zealand, official data released on Wednesday showed that retail sales in New Zealand rose 1.7% in the second quarter, beating expectations for a 1.4% increase.

The previous quarter's figure was revised up to a 0.9% gain from a previously estimated 0.5% rise.

Core retail sales, which exclude automobiles and gas stations, rose 2.3% in the last quarter, more than the expected 1.3% increase, after a 1% gain in the three months to March.

In the week ahead, investors will be looking ahead to Wednesday’s minutes of the Federal Reserve’s most recent meeting, while U.S. data on initial jobless claims and the housing sector will also be closely watched.

Manufacturing data from China and service and manufacturing data out of the euro zone will also be in focus.

Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets.

Monday, August 19

New Zealand is to release official data on producer price inflation, a leading indicator of consumer inflation.

Tuesday, August 20

New Zealand is to release data on inflation expectations.

Wednesday, August 21

The U.S. is to publish private sector data on existing home sales, a leading indicator of economic health. In addition the Federal Reserve is to publish the minutes of its most recent policy setting meeting.

Thursday, August 22

China is to publish its closely watched HSBC manufacturing PMI. The Asian nation is New Zealand's second biggest export partner.

The U.S. is to release the weekly government report on initial jobless claims.

Friday, August 23

The U.S. is to round up the week with data on new home sales, a leading indicator of economic health.

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