Forex - NZD/USD weekly outlook: April 8 - 12

Published 04/07/2013, 08:46 AM
NZD/USD
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EUR/NZD
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Investing.com - The New Zealand dollar ended Friday’s session close to a six-week high against its U.S. counterpart, after weaker-than-expected U.S. nonfarm payroll figures fuelled speculation the Federal Reserve would keep its loose monetary policy in place for the indefinite future.

NZD/USD hit 0.8447 on Wednesday, the pair’s highest since February 20; the pair subsequently consolidated at 0.8433 by close of trade, 0.88% higher for the week.

The pair is likely to find support at 0.8363, Thursday’s low and resistance at 0.8447, the high from April 3.

The U.S. Department of Labor said the economy added 88,000 jobs last month, the smallest increase since last June and far below forecasts for an increase of 200,000.

The data also showed that the unemployment rate ticked down to 7.6% from 7.7% in February, but the decline stemmed from more people dropping out of the labor force. The labor participation rate fell to 63.3%, the lowest level since 1979.

The dismal jobs report fuelled fears that the recovery in the labor market is losing momentum, easing recent jitters the Fed would start to withdraw its super easy monetary policy.

Elsewhere, the kiwi was lower against the euro on Friday, with EUR/NZD adding 0.4% to hit 1.5418.

The euro recovered from the previous day’s selloff, when European Central Bank President Mario Draghi said the bank was ready to act to cut rates if needed.

The single currency recovered after the ECB chief said the bank’s commitment to the single currency is largely underestimated.

In the week ahead, investors will be awaiting Wednesday’s minutes of the Fed’s March policy meeting for further hints on the future of its monetary policy.

Market participants will also be watching U.S. data on retail sales and consumer sentiment on Friday in an attempt to gauge the strength of the U.S. economic recovery.

Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets. The guide skips Monday as there are no relevant events on this day.

Tuesday, April 9

New Zealand is to release private sector data on business confidence, a leading indicator of economic health.

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke is to speak; his comments will be closely watched for indications of the future possible direction of monetary policy.

Wednesday, April 10

The Federal Reserve is to publish the minutes of its most recent policy meeting. The minutes give investors important insights into economic conditions from the bank’s perspective.

The U.S. is also to release government data on the federal budget balance.

Thursday, April 11

The U.S. is to publish the weekly government report on initial jobless claims and official data on import prices.

Friday, April 12

The U.S. is to round up the week with official data on retail sale, producer price inflation and business inventories, as well as preliminary data from the University of Michigan on consumer sentiment.

Also Friday, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke is to speak; his comments will be closely watched for indications of the future possible direction of monetary policy.

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