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Forex - NZD/USD weekly outlook: April 11-15

Published 04/10/2011, 09:35 AM
NZD/USD
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Investing.com – Last week saw the New Zealand dollar jump to a five-month high against its U.S. counterpart on Friday, fuelled by increased demand for higher-yielding currencies and surging commodity prices.

NZD/USD hit 0.7834 on Friday, the pair's highest since November 11, 2010; the pair subsequently consolidated at 0.7824 by close of trade, jumping 1.85% over the week. 

The pair was likely to find support at 0.7735, Thursday's low and resistance at 0.7872, the high of November 11.

The kiwi was boosted amid increased demand for higher-yielding currencies. At present, benchmark interest rates are 2.5% in New Zealand, compared with zero in the U.S., attracting investors to the nation’s higher-yielding currency.

New Zealand Finance Minister Bill English said Wednesday that the country probably would not need to lower borrowing costs again after the magnitude 6.3 quake that struck Christchurch on February 22 prompted the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to cut interest rates. 

Meanwhile, the greenback came under broad selling pressure as the White House and Congress attempted to break a U.S. budget deadlock in order to avoid a government shutdown on Friday.

On Monday, the Australia and New Zealand banking group said its commodity price index advanced by 4.7% to 336.9 in March, taking its annual gain to almost 30%. For the first time in 17 years, all 17 commodity prices rose in the month.

In the week ahead, investors will be looking towards March U.S. retail sales data to gauge the strength of consumer spending, as well as U.S. data on consumer and producer price inflation.

Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets.

Monday, April 11

In the U.S., the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Charles Evans is to speak; his comments will be closely watched for any clues to the future possible direction of monetary policy. Also Monday, Federal Reserve Governor Janet Yellen is to speak.

Tuesday, April 12

New Zealand is to publish official data on food price inflation and visitor arrivals, a key market mover for the kiwi as tourism plays an important role in the economy.

The U.S. is to release government data on its trade balance, as well as a report on import prices, an important indicator of inflation. The U.S. is also to publish monthly data on the federal budget balance.

Wednesday, April 13

New Zealand is to publish data on manufacturing activity, a leading indicator of economic health.

Meanwhile, the U.S. is to publish government data on retail sales, the primary gauge of consumer spending, which accounts for the majority of overall economic activity. The country is also to publish official data on business inventories and crude oil stockpiles while the Federal Reserve is to publish its Beige Book.

Thursday, April 14


The U.S. is to publish official data on producer price inflation, a leading indicator of consumer inflation. The country is also to publish its weekly report on initial jobless claims, an important signal of overall economic health.

Friday, April 15

The U.S. is to round up the week with official data on consumer price inflation. In addition, the U.S. is to publish official data on industrial production and the capacity utilization rate, while the Federal Reserve Bank of New York is to publish its manufacturing index.

The U.S. is also to publish a report on the balance of domestic and foreign investment, while the University of Michigan is to publish preliminary data on consumer sentiment and inflation expectations.

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