Forex - GBP/USD Weekly outlook: October 31-November 4

Published 10/30/2011, 11:08 AM
GBP/USD
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Investing.com - Last week saw the pound rise sharply against the U.S. dollar, tracking the euro's gains as a new plan to tackle the deepening sovereign debt crisis in the single currency bloc boosted demand for riskier assets.

GBP/USD hit 1.6151 on Friday, the pair's highest since September 6; the pair subsequently consolidated at 1.6127, jumping 1.21% over the week.

The pair is likely to find support at 1.5956, the low of October 25 and resistance at 1.6252, the high of September 2.

Sterling rallied on Thursday as risk appetite was boosted after European leaders reached an agreement with banks to take a 'voluntary' 50% loss on the face value of their Greek debt, curbing risks of a potential Greek default.

Leaders also agreed to expand the firepower of the euro zone's bailout fund, the European Financial Stability Facility, to EUR1 trillion.

Market sentiment also strengthened after preliminary data showed that gross domestic product in the U.S. rose more-than-expected in the third quarter, expanding at the fastest rate since the third quarter of 2010.

The reading nearly doubled growth of 1.3% recorded in the preceding quarter. Analysts had expected U.S. gross domestic product to rise 2.4% in the third quarter.

Sterling held gains on Friday, after ratings agency Fitch said that writedowns on Greek debt would indicate a default and after Italy’s borrowing costs rose to a euro lifetime high, following an auction of government debt.

The pound's gains were limited amid uncertainty over the economic outlook for the U.K. after the Bank of England implemented a second round of monetary easing earlier this month.

On Friday, a report showed that consumer confidence in the U.K. fell to its lowest level since February 2009 in October. The data came a day after BoE policymaker Paul Fisher said that additional quantitative easing may be required after the current round ends.

In the week ahead, investors will be focusing on the Federal Reserve’s policy meeting on Wednesday and Friday’s U.S. nonfarm payrolls data. Elsewhere, the U.K. is to release a preliminary report on the country's gross domestic product.

Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets.

Monday, October 31

In the U.K., the Bank of England is to publish data on net lending to individuals, which is closely linked to consumer spending. The bank is also to publish data on M4 money supply and mortgage approvals.

Later Monday, the U.S is to produce a report on manufacturing activity in the Chicago area, an important indicator of economic health.

Tuesday, November 1

The U.K. is to release preliminary data on GDP, the broadest measure of economic activity and the primary gauge of the economy's health. The country is also to publish an industry report on house price inflation, as well as data on manufacturing activity.

Also Tuesday, the Institute of Supply Management is to produce a report on U.S. manufacturing activity, a leading indicator of economic health.

Wednesday, November 2

The U.K. is to publish a report on construction activity, a leading indicator of economic health.

Later Wednesday, the U.S. is to release private sector data on non-farm payrolls that leads government data by two days as well as a government report on crude oil stockpiles. In addition, the Federal Reserve is to announce its benchmark interest rate. The bank’s post-policy meeting press conference will be closely watched for indications to the future possible direction of monetary policy.

Thursday, November 3

Leaders from the G-20 group of industrialized nations are to hold talks to discuss a range of global economic topics, including the financial crisis in the euro zone, in Cannes.

Also Thursday, the U.K. is to publish data on service sector activity, a leading indicator of economic health.

Later in the day, the U.S. is to produce its weekly report on initial jobless claims as well as government data on factory orders. The U.S. is also to publish preliminary data on nonfarm productivity and labor costs, important inflationary indicators. In addition the ISM is to release a report on service sector activity, a leading indicator of economic health.

Friday, November 4

The U.S. is to round up the week with its closely watched government report on nonfarm payrolls, in addition to official data on the unemployment rate and average hourly earnings.

Meanwhile, G-20 leaders are to meet for a second day in Cannes.

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