Forex - GBP/USD weekly outlook: October 29 - November 2

Published 10/28/2012, 11:39 AM
GBP/USD
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Investing.com - The pound pulled back from a one-week high against the U.S. dollar on Friday, trimming some of the week’s gains after official data showed that the U.S. economy grew more-than-expected in the third quarter.

GBP/USD hit 1.6048 on Thursday, the pair’s highest since October 18; the pair subsequently consolidated at 1.6105 by close of trade on Friday, up 0.66% for the week.

Cable is likely to find support at 1.6029, Thursday’s low and resistance at 1.6217, the high of October 5.

The Commerce Department reported that the U.S. economy grew by a better-than-forecast 2% in the three months to September, on the back of stronger consumer spending, after expanding by 1.3% in the preceding quarter. Economists had predicted growth of 1.9%.

Earlier in the week, the Federal Reserve said the U.S. economy was improving moderately, but said job growth has been slow and the unemployment rate remains elevated.

In its rate statement on Wednesday, the central bank also said it planned to keep its benchmark short-term rate close to zero through mid-2015.

Sterling strengthened broadly on Thursday after official data showed that the U.K. exited a recession in the third quarter, with the economy growing at the fastest rate since the third quarter of 2007.

The Office of National Statistics said U.K. gross domestic product expanded by 1.0% in the three months September, pulling the economy out of the longest double dip recession since 1955.

Economists had forecast growth of 0.6%, following a 0.4% contraction in the second quarter.

The increase in third quarter growth was boosted by ticket sales for the London Olympics, as well as a rebound following an extra public holiday for the Queen’s Jubilee in the second quarter.

The robust data saw investors trim back expectations for another round of easing by the Bank of England.

In the week ahead, investors will be focusing on Friday’s U.S. nonfarm payrolls data after the unemployment rate unexpectedly fell to 7.8% in September from 8.1% the previous month.

In addition, investors will be awaiting any indication that Spain is growing closer to requesting a bailout from its euro zone partners.

Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets.

Monday, October 29

The U.K. is to publish official data on net lending, which is closely linked to consumer spending, as well as data on M4 money supply and mortgage approvals.

Later Monday, the U.S. is to release government data on personal income, personal spending and core consumer inflation.

Tuesday, October 30

The U.S. is to release data on consumer confidence, a leading indicator of economic health, as well as industry data on house price inflation, an important indicator of demand in the housing sector.

Wednesday, October 31

In the U.S., payroll processing firm ADP is to release a report on nonfarm payrolls, a leading indicator of private sector job creation. The U.S. is also to publish official data on manufacturing activity in Chicago, as well as data on employment costs and crude oil stockpiles.

Thursday, November 1

The U.K. is to produce data on manufacturing sector activity, a leading indicator of economic health.

The U.S. is to release private sector data on nonfarm payrolls, an important indicator of job creation. The U.S. is also to publish its weekly government report on initial jobless claims, as well as official data on nonfarm productivity and labor costs, important inflationary indicators.

In addition, the Institute of Supply Management is to publish data on U.S. manufacturing activity.

Friday, November 2

The U.K. is to produce data on construction sector activity, a leading indicator of economic health.

The U.S. is to round up the week with the closely watched government report on nonfarm payrolls, a leading indicator of job creation in the economy, as well as data on the unemployment rate.

The U.S. is also to publish official data on average earnings and factory orders.



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