Forex - GBP/USD weekly outlook: October 18-22

Published 10/17/2010, 11:22 AM
GBP/USD
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Investing.com – Last week saw the pound surge to a 10-month high against the broadly weaker U.S. dollar, before paring gains following remarks on the outlook for further monetary easing by Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke.

GBP/USD hit 1.6106 on Friday, the pair highest since January 29; the pair subsequently consolidated at 1.5990 by close of trade, advancing 0.25% over the week.

Cable is likely to find support at 1.5773, the low of October 13 and resistance at 1.6275, the high of January 28.

The pound’s gains came after the minutes of the September 21 meeting of the Fed's Federal Open Market Committee showed that "many participants" believed "it would be appropriate to provide additional monetary policy accommodation" if unemployment remained too high or inflation too low.

However the pound retreated following remarks by Bernanke on Friday in which he remained circumspect over the prospect of further easing.

During a speech in Boston, Bernanke said there was a case for further monetary easing but said officials "will take account of the potential costs and risks" of further easing. He also said that any action would be "contingent on incoming information about the economic outlook and financial conditions."

In the week ahead, the U.S. is to release key weekly data on initial jobless claims, as well as important data on building permits, housing starts, manufacturing activity and foreign investment while the Federal Reserve is to publish its Beige Book.

In the U.K., the Bank of England is to publish minutes of the most recent monetary policy committee meeting as well as data on public sector borrowing, while the bank’s governor is to give a speech. The country is also to produce official data on retail sales.

Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect GBP/USD.

Monday, October 18

The U.S. will being the week by publishing official data on the difference in value between foreign long-term securities purchased by U.S. citizens and U.S. long-term securities purchased by foreigners. The country is also to release official data on the capacity utilization rate as well as data on industrial production, a leading indicator of economic health.

Tuesday, October 19

The U.S. is to publish official data on building permits and housing starts, both leading indicators of health in the housing sector.

The U.K. is to produce industry data on industrial order expectations, an important indicator of economic health. The governor of the Bank of England Melvyn King is to speak at a public engagement; his comments will be closely watched for clues to the future direction of monetary policy.

Wednesday, October 20

In the U.S., the Federal Reserve is to release its Beige Book, a summary of the data the bank examines before setting the benchmark interest rate. The U.S. is also set to produce data on crude oil inventories.

In the U.K., the Bank of England is to publish the minutes of the most recent meeting of the monetary policy committee. The data provides in-depth insights into the economic conditions that influenced the committee's decision on where to set interest rates. The bank is also to publish data on public sector borrowing.

Thursday, October 21

The U.S. is to release key weekly data on initial jobless claims, while the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia is due to release a report on the city’s manufacturing sector. The country is also due to publish an index of leading economic indicators, designed to predict the future direction of the economy.

Also Thursday, the President of the Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis, James Bullard is to speak at a public engagement. His comments will be closely watched for any clues to the future direction of monetary policy.

Meanwhile, the U.K. is to release preliminary data on mortgage approvals, as well as official data on retail sales, a primary gauge of consumer spending. Later in the day, the Governor of the Bank of England and several Monetary Policy Committee members are to testify on inflation and the nation’s economic outlook before Parliament's Treasury Committee.

Friday, October 22

The President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas, Thomas Hoenig is to speak at a public engagement.

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